Ball State vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 1:16BALLEric Weatherly 35 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)24–45
- Q4 2:11M-OHJermaine Agee 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)17–45
- Q4 7:44BALLQua Ashley 2 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)17–38
- Q3 7:34M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–38
- Q2 0:14M-OHDom Dzioban 33 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 10:09M-OHKam Perry 55 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–28
- Q1 0:21M-OHJordan Brunson 12 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–21
- Q1 2:30BALLDC Pippin 43 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 6:26M-OHBraylon Isom 10 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:12BALLJalen Bonds 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:07M-OHBraylon Isom 23 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKiael Kelly 14/23, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKiael Kelly 16 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecDonovan Hamilton 4 REC, 72 YDS
- PassThomas Gotkowski 12/24, 226 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Brunson 14 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCole Weaver 5 REC, 66 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:12BALL +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 6:26M-OH +7%
Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete short right to #18 B.Isom caught at BSU00, for 10 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 9:07M-OH +7%
Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #18 B.Isom caught at BSU00, for 23 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:21M-OH +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush right for 12 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Miami (OH)?
Ball State 24, Miami (OH) 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
| BALL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 458 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 226 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 232 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 12/24 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 27:26 | Possession | 32:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:57 M-OH go for it on 4th & 13 at BALL 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:16BALLEric Weatherly 35 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)24–45
- Q4 2:11M-OHJermaine Agee 0 Yd Fumble Recovery (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)17–45
- Q4 7:44BALLQua Ashley 2 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (DC Pippin Kick)17–38
- Q3 7:34M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–38
- Q2 0:14M-OHDom Dzioban 33 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 10:09M-OHKam Perry 55 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–28
- Q1 0:21M-OHJordan Brunson 12 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–21
- Q1 2:30BALLDC Pippin 43 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 6:26M-OHBraylon Isom 10 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:12BALLJalen Bonds 2 Yd Run (DC Pippin Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:07M-OHBraylon Isom 23 Yd pass from Thomas Gotkowski (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1451, BALL Elo 1018 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -19.7 (90% to win) — 3.2 points clear of M-OH's market line of -16.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 24–13 · Miami (OH) has won 6 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| BALL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.9 (#133) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#81) |
| -22 / +6 | offense / defense | -7 / -1 |
| 1.14 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →