| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 10 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
| M-OH | 21 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (M-OH Elo 1451, BALL Elo 1018) plus home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -19.7 (93% to win) — 3.2 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -16.5.
M-OH up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 24, Miami (OH) 45.
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(02:19) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly sacked for loss of 19 yards to the BSU00 (#50 J.Fuller), fumble by #1 K.Kelly recovered by MIA #13 J.Agee at BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:11 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 T.Gotkowski pass complete deep left to #8 K.Perry caught at BSU18, for 55 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:09, 1ST DOWN #31 D.Dzioban kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #59 H.Powell)
(06:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete deep left to #88 D.Hamilton caught at MIA44, for 47 yards to the MIA32 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWN
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