Army vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsUAB
- Q4 0:54UABRyder Burton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q4 4:10ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)31–7
- Q4 14:18ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)24–7
- Q3 5:11ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:02ARMYDawson Jones 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:16UABXavier Daisy 1 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:47ARMYHayden Reed 3 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.1
- UAB lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassCale Hellums 1/3, 41 YDS
- RushCale Hellums 21 CAR, 81 YDS, 3 TD
- RecSamari Howard 2 REC, 48 YDS
- PassJalen Kitna 24/42, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJevon Jackson 12 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecIverson Hooks 4 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:16UAB +20%
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Xavier Daisy for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q3 5:11ARMY +17%
Cale Hellums run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q2 13:47ARMY +16%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q2 0:02ARMY +9%
Dawson Jones 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:32ARMY +6%
Hellums,Cale rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UAB14 (McDaniel,T'sai) PENALTY UAB Offside (Burge,Chris) 5 yards from UAB16 to UAB11. NO PLAY
- Q3 10:07UAB +6%
Jonah Delange 30 yd FG MISSED
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. UAB?
Army 31, UAB 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
| ARMY | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 295 | Total yards | 362 |
| 48 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 247 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 17 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 2/5 | Comp/Att | 24/42 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 11-73 |
| 36:51 | Possession | 23:09 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:19 ARMY punt on 4th & 11 at UAB 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:54UABRyder Burton 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q4 4:10ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)31–7
- Q4 14:18ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)24–7
- Q3 5:11ARMYCale Hellums 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–7
- Q2 0:02ARMYDawson Jones 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 1:16UABXavier Daisy 1 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:47ARMYHayden Reed 3 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1278, ARMY Elo 1533 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +7.8 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARMY | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#112) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 3.61 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -34 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →