| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| UAB | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UAB Elo 1278, ARMY Elo 1533) plus home-field advantage. That projects UAB +7.8 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 31, UAB 13.
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARMY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 47 yds to the ARMY 15 for a 1ST down
Cale Hellums pass incomplete to Noah Short
Cale Hellums pass complete to Samari Howard for 41 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST down
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