Army
3-3·American Athletic· Elo 1552
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
| TULN | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TULN Elo 1580, ARMY Elo 1552) plus home-field advantage. That projects TULN -3.5 (60% to win) — 6.5 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of -10.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Army 17, Tulane 24.
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TULN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jake Retzlaff run for 37 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the ARMY 7
Jake Retzlaff pass intercepted, touchback. Casey Larkin return for no gain
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