Army vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsTULN
- Q4 0:27TULNShazz Preston 26 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)17–24
- Q4 1:54TULNBryce Bohanon 12 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)17–17
- Q4 5:54ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q3 4:52TULNJake Retzlaff 37 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–10
- Q3 6:31ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–3
- Q2 0:23ARMYDawson Jones 43 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 1:49TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassCale Hellums 7/10, 125 YDS
- RushCale Hellums 38 CAR, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBrady Anderson 4 REC, 97 YDS
- PassJake Retzlaff 22/29, 261 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJake Retzlaff 8 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShazz Preston 5 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:54TULN +57%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 12 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
- Q4 1:28TULN +47%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Javin Gordon for 3 yds to the TULN 28
- Q4 5:54ARMY +43%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q4 1:54ARMY +41%
Cale Hellums run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27
- Q3 1:35TULN +36%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the TULN 35
- Q3 6:31ARMY +29%
Cale Hellums run for 1 yd for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Tulane?
Army 17, Tulane 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| ARMY | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 358 | Total yards | 402 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 261 |
| 233 | Rushing yards | 141 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 7/10 | Comp/Att | 22/29 |
| 12.5 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 38:58 | Possession | 21:02 |
Costliest call
Q4 1:54 TULN go for it on 4th & 8 at ARMY 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.70 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:27TULNShazz Preston 26 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)17–24
- Q4 1:54TULNBryce Bohanon 12 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)17–17
- Q4 5:54ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)17–10
- Q3 4:52TULNJake Retzlaff 37 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)10–10
- Q3 6:31ARMYCale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)10–3
- Q2 0:23ARMYDawson Jones 43 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 1:49TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1580, ARMY Elo 1552 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -3.5 (60% to win) — 6.5 points clear of ARMY's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulane leads 14–10–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#74) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#47) |
| -0 / +3 | offense / defense | +5 / -2 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.56 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -34 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →