Arizona
Big 12· Elo 1689
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIZ | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 |
| SMU | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SMU Elo 1851, ARIZ Elo 1689) on a neutral field. That projects SMU -6.5 (68% to win) — 4.0 points of value on SMU versus the market line of -2.5.
SMU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona 19, SMU 24.
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep right to #88 M.Hibner caught at SMU42, for 80 yards to the ARIZ01 (#25 M.Dansby), 1ST DOWN
End of 3rd quarter.
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Fifita pass incomplete short left to #4 K.Hutson thrown to SMU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →