App State vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsODU
- Q4 1:35APPAJ Swann pass to D. Dozier for 34 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)21–24
- Q4 9:26APPAJ Swann pass to K. Hamlett for 35 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)14–24
- Q3 0:26ODUC. Joseph pass to J. Thomas for 24 yds, for a TD (R. Callaghan KICK)7–24
- Q3 10:02ODUC. Joseph pass to N. Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 16 yds, for a TD (R. Callaghan KICK)7–17
- Q2 0:30APPJJ Kohl pass to J. Barnes for 16 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)7–10
- Q2 2:10ODURiley Callaghan 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:24ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 70 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassAJ Swann 12/16, 140 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRashod Dubinion 9 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecDavion Dozier 4 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- PassColton Joseph 21/35, 310 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushColton Joseph 18 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 8 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:35APP +25%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Swann pass complete deep left to #1 D.Dozier caught at ODU00, for 34 yards to the ODU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 1:30ODU +23%
Kneel down by #1 C.Joseph at ODU45 for loss of 4 yards PENALTY App Offside 5 yards from ODU49 to App46. NO PLAY
- Q3 10:02ODU +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short right to #7 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at App00, for 16 yards to the App00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 0:26ODU +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #6 J.Thomas caught at App19, for 24 yards to the App00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:00APP +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass incomplete deep left to #7 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding thrown to App03 broken up by #2 E.Johnson
- Q4 3:22ODU +7%
#94 R.Callaghan field goal attempt from 39 yards NO GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Old Dominion?
App State 21, Old Dominion 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| APP | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 374 | Total yards | 459 |
| 301 | Passing yards | 310 |
| 73 | Rushing yards | 149 |
| 23 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 32/54 | Comp/Att | 21/35 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-80 | Penalties | 7-86 |
| 24:41 | Possession | 35:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:03 APP punt on 4th & 1 at APP 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:35APPAJ Swann pass to D. Dozier for 34 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)21–24
- Q4 9:26APPAJ Swann pass to K. Hamlett for 35 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)14–24
- Q3 0:26ODUC. Joseph pass to J. Thomas for 24 yds, for a TD (R. Callaghan KICK)7–24
- Q3 10:02ODUC. Joseph pass to N. Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 16 yds, for a TD (R. Callaghan KICK)7–17
- Q2 0:30APPJJ Kohl pass to J. Barnes for 16 yds, for a TD (D. De Freitas KICK)7–10
- Q2 2:10ODURiley Callaghan 33 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:24ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 70 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1464, APP Elo 1331 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -7.7 (71% to win) — 5.3 points clear of APP's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| APP | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 (#121) | CORE overall | +18.9 (#17) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.52 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →