S.B. Ballard StadiumConference gameClosing line: ODU -13 · APP covered
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| ODU | 7 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1464, APP Elo 1331) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -7.7 (72% to win) — 5.3 points of value on APP versus the market line of -13.
ODU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
App State 21, Old Dominion 24.
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Joseph pass complete short middle to #18 K.Hargrove caught at ODU44, for 70 yards to the App00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:24, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Callaghan kick attempt good (H: #96 I.Brandt, LS: #30 B.Durkin)
End of 3rd quarter.
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass intercepted by #7 R.Ramey at ODU12 #7 R.Ramey return 3 yards to the ODU15, out of bounds at ODU15
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