← All games
App State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 11, 7:30 PM
Center Parc StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 7 | 10 | 21 | 3 | 41 |
| GAST | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
GAST 1150
APP 1326
Projected spread
GAST +4.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
APP
63% to win
Market spread
GAST +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
37%
GAST · market 42%
Our model blends Elo ratings (GAST Elo 1150, APP Elo 1326) plus home-field advantage. That projects GAST +4.6 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
GAST (top)APP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: GAST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
APP2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedGAST
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.1442%
Success rate
41%1.18
Explosiveness
1.253.50
Pts / opportunity
3.3969%
Power success
63%Defense
0.18
PPA allowed / play
0.2745%
Success rate allowed
46%1.19
Explosiveness allowed
1.2717%
Havoc rate
13%18%
Stuff rate
14%Key matchups · Pro
- APP pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. GAST pass defense (0.43 allowed) — edge GAST.
- APP rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. GAST rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. APP pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge APP.
Drive-by-drive
APP 7/14 scoring drives← own end zone →GAST 3/13 scoring drives
APPPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
GASTMISS13 pl, 54 yds· own 35Q1
APPPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 15Q1
GASTPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 34Q1
APPTD13 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q1
GASTPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 16Q1
APPPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 5Q2
GASTDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· opp 42Q2
APPPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 34Q2
GASTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 22Q2
APPTD10 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q2
GASTPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q2
APPFG8 pl, 66 yds· own 20Q2
GASTINT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
APPTD3 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q3
GASTDOWNS6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q3
APPTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q3
GASTTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
APPTD3 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q3
GASTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
APPMISS8 pl, 32 yds· own 38Q3
GASTDOWNS4 pl, 1 yds· own 30Q4
APPFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 31Q4
GASTTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
APPDOWNS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 47Q4
GASTDOWNS5 pl, 14 yds· own 40Q4
APPEND6 pl, 4 yds· own 46Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
APP up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
APP went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Georgia State?
App State 41, Georgia State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had APP pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.