App State vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsGAST
- Q4 6:25GASTJavon Robinson 22 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–20
- Q4 10:00APPDominic De Freitas 46 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q3 0:50GASTGrant Hollier 15 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)38–14
- Q3 3:40APPIzayah Cummings 3 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)38–6
- Q3 4:40GASTCameran Brown 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–6
- Q3 8:10APPDalton Stroman 6 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)31–0
- Q3 12:10APPJaquari Lewis 14 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)24–0
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 32 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 2:37APPJaden Barnes 11 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:04APPDavion Dozier 12 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJJ Kohl 21/32, 309 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJaquari Lewis 14 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIzayah Cummings 6 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCameran Brown 19/35, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCameran Brown 7 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTed Hurst III 9 REC, 105 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:50GAST +5%
Ian Ratliff punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GAST 35
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Georgia State?
App State 41, Georgia State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| APP | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 435 | Total yards | 381 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 303 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 78 |
| 23 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 9-19 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 32/61 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 2-30 |
| 31:47 | Possession | 28:13 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:47 GAST go for it on 4th & 9 at GAST 31. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:25GASTJavon Robinson 22 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)41–20
- Q4 10:00APPDominic De Freitas 46 Yd Field Goal 41–14
- Q3 0:50GASTGrant Hollier 15 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Cameran Brown Pass to Ted Hurst for Two-Point Conversion)38–14
- Q3 3:40APPIzayah Cummings 3 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)38–6
- Q3 4:40GASTCameran Brown 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–6
- Q3 8:10APPDalton Stroman 6 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)31–0
- Q3 12:10APPJaquari Lewis 14 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)24–0
- Q2 0:00APPDominic De Freitas 32 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q2 2:37APPJaden Barnes 11 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:04APPDavion Dozier 12 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1150, APP Elo 1326 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesApp State leads 12–0 · App State has won 12 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| APP | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 (#121) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#117) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | -6 / +11 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 3.54 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →