Akron vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsUAB
- Q4 12:38AKRSean Patrick 1 Yd Run (Ben Finley Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q2 0:47UABCorri Milliner 5 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)20–31
- Q2 1:53AKROwen Wiley 23 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 8:48UABJevon Jackson 6 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)17–24
- Q2 14:24UABJonah Delange 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q1 1:26AKROwen Wiley 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q1 4:21UABNate Rogers 8 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:36AKRIsrael Polk 5 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)14–7
- Q1 14:38AKRIsrael Polk 75 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49UABSolomon Beebe 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBen Finley 19/35, 282 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSean Patrick 19 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIsrael Polk 4 REC, 99 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalen Kitna 30/44, 341 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJevon Jackson 14 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecIverson Hooks 5 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:52UAB +25%
UAB Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined
- Q4 12:38AKR +23%
Sean Patrick run for 1 yd for a TD (B. Finley Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q4 1:38AKR +20%
Ben Finley pass complete to Myles Walker for 15 yds to the AKR 35 for a 1ST down
- Q4 0:35UAB +19%
Kneel down by UAB at Akron27 for loss of 1 yard
- Q1 4:21UAB +17%
Nate Rogers run for 8 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
- Q1 8:36AKR +16%
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 5 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined (Owen Wiley KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. UAB?
Akron 28, UAB 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UAB) was correct.
| AKR | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total yards | 421 |
| 282 | Passing yards | 341 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 80 |
| 21 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 19/35 | Comp/Att | 30/44 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-44 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 29:58 | Possession | 30:02 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:44 UAB punt on 4th & 2 at UAB 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:38AKRSean Patrick 1 Yd Run (Ben Finley Run for Two-Point Conversion)28–31
- Q2 0:47UABCorri Milliner 5 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)20–31
- Q2 1:53AKROwen Wiley 23 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 8:48UABJevon Jackson 6 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)17–24
- Q2 14:24UABJonah Delange 44 Yd Field Goal 17–17
- Q1 1:26AKROwen Wiley 36 Yd Field Goal 17–14
- Q1 4:21UABNate Rogers 8 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)14–14
- Q1 8:36AKRIsrael Polk 5 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)14–7
- Q1 14:38AKRIsrael Polk 75 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Owen Wiley Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:49UABSolomon Beebe 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonah Delange Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1309, AKR Elo 1058 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -12.4 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AKR | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | -15.8 (#112) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | -4 / +11 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 3.61 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →