| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKR | 17 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 28 |
| UAB | 14 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UAB Elo 1309, AKR Elo 1058) plus home-field advantage. That projects UAB -12.4 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UAB up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Akron 28, UAB 31.
Yes — the model's pick (UAB) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UAB pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ben Finley pass complete to Israel Polk for 75 yds for a TD (Owen Wiley KICK)
Jalen Kitna pass intercepted Markus Boswell return for 44 yds to the UAB 31
Ben Finley pass complete to Kyan Mason for 32 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST down
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