Akron vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 3:20BGSUJackson Kleather 31 Yd Field Goal 19–16
- Q4 11:43AKRMatthew Schramm 30 Yd Field Goal 19–13
- Q3 3:42AKRIsrael Polk 75 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)16–13
- Q3 3:53BGSUJacob Harris 21 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)9–13
- Q3 12:42AKRMatthew Schramm 48 Yd Field Goal 9–6
- Q2 1:47AKRMatthew Schramm 37 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q2 12:00BGSUJackson Kleather 28 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 5:14AKRMatthew Schramm 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:45BGSUJackson Kleather 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BGSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassBen Finley 9/26, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Gant 22 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecIsrael Polk 2 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHunter Najm 9/26, 138 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAustyn Dendy 27 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecJyrin Johnson 3 REC, 63 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:42AKR +33%
PENALTY Akron Delay Of Game 5 yards from BGSU03 to BGSU08. NO PLAY
- Q3 3:53BGSU +27%
Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass complete deep left to #88 J.Harris caught at Akron00, for 21 yards to the Akron00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 3:04AKR +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 J.Gant rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Akron21 (#38 D.Kelly)
- Q4 2:00BGSU +26%
Shotgun #26 C.Pettaway rush left for 3 yards gain to the Akron39 (#20 M.Flowers)
- Q4 0:49AKR +26%
PENALTY BGSU Personal Foul (#55 T.Fatukasi) 15 yards from Akron20 to Akron35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
- Q4 3:20BGSU +23%
#14 J.Kleather field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Bowling Green?
Akron 19, Bowling Green 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 272 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 9/28 | Comp/Att | 9/26 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 7-90 |
| 25:48 | Possession | 34:12 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:25 BGSU punt on 4th & 1 at BGSU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:20BGSUJackson Kleather 31 Yd Field Goal 19–16
- Q4 11:43AKRMatthew Schramm 30 Yd Field Goal 19–13
- Q3 3:42AKRIsrael Polk 75 Yd pass from Ben Finley (Matthew Schramm Kick)16–13
- Q3 3:53BGSUJacob Harris 21 Yd pass from Hunter Najm (Jackson Kleather Kick)9–13
- Q3 12:42AKRMatthew Schramm 48 Yd Field Goal 9–6
- Q2 1:47AKRMatthew Schramm 37 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q2 12:00BGSUJackson Kleather 28 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 5:14AKRMatthew Schramm 39 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:45BGSUJackson Kleather 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1244, AKR Elo 1087 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -8.7 (73% to win) — 6.2 points clear of BGSU's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBowling Green leads 21–10 · 32% have been one-possession games
| AKR | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.3 (#128) | CORE overall | -18.8 (#122) |
| -13 / +8 | offense / defense | -16 / +3 |
| 1.55 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 2.41 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →