Fri, Nov 28, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
| CSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1191, AF Elo 1350) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +4 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
AF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 42, Colorado State 21.
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had AF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:59) #11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at CSU49, for 55 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50, 1ST DOWN #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete short left to #81 R.Beers caught at AFA22, for 38 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:51, 1ST DOWN #98 I.Hankins kick attempt good (H: #83 B.Hansen, LS: #56 W.Himebauch)
(15:00) #11 J.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #18 Q.Smith caught at CSU40, for 27 yards to the CSU39 (#13 J.Jarmolowich), 1ST DOWN. #18 Q.Smith injured on the play
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