Canvas StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |
| CSU | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CSU 1191
AF 1350
Projected spread
CSU +4
incl. home edge
Model pick
AF
62% to win
Market spread
CSU +2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
38%
CSU · market 45%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1191, AF Elo 1350) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +4 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CSU (top)AF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. AF pass defense (0.51 allowed) — edge AF.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.31 allowed) — edge AF.
- AF pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge AF.
Drive-by-drive
AF 6/8 scoring drives← own end zone →CSU 3/8 scoring drives
AFTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CSUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1
AFTD10 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
AF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
AF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Colorado State?
Air Force 42, Colorado State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had AF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.