Air Force vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsCSU
- Q4 3:05AFOwen Allen 7 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)42–21
- Q4 6:51CSURocky Beers 38 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)35–21
- Q4 9:09AFBruin Fleischmann 6 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Reagan Tubbs Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:37AFJosh Johnson 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:19CSULloyd Avant 5 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:14AFKemper Hodges 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:48CSUTay Lanier 20 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:26AFOwen Allen 6 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:50AFBruin Fleischmann 55 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and AF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 3.8
- PassJosh Johnson 4/4, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RushOwen Allen 25 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBruin Fleischmann 2 REC, 61 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJackson Brousseau 28/37, 323 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLloyd Avant 3 CAR, 11 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLloyd Avant 8 REC, 135 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:50AF +16%
#11 J.Johnson pass complete short right to #88 B.Fleischmann caught at CSU49, for 55 yards to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 11:19CSU +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #25 L.Avant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 8:48CSU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Brousseau pass complete deep left to #6 T.Lanier caught at AFA00, for 20 yards to the AFA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:14AF +12%
#4 K.Hodges rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:26AF +12%
#2 O.Allen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:37AF +12%
#11 J.Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Colorado State?
Air Force 42, Colorado State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| AF | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 335 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 323 |
| 316 | Rushing yards | 12 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 11-15 | 3rd down | 2-8 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 4/4 | Comp/Att | 28/37 |
| 26.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 2-11 |
| 40:47 | Possession | 19:13 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:05AFOwen Allen 7 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)42–21
- Q4 6:51CSURocky Beers 38 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)35–21
- Q4 9:09AFBruin Fleischmann 6 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Reagan Tubbs Kick)35–14
- Q3 5:37AFJosh Johnson 3 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:19CSULloyd Avant 5 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–14
- Q2 0:14AFKemper Hodges 1 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)21–7
- Q2 8:48CSUTay Lanier 20 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:26AFOwen Allen 6 Yd Run (Reagan Tubbs Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:50AFBruin Fleischmann 55 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Reagan Tubbs Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1191, AF Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +4 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 40–22–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| AF | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#119) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| +6 / +24 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 3.13 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 3.57 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -27 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →