Southern Miss vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsTXST
- Q4 7:56TXSTLincoln Pare 68 Yd Run (Beckham Sunderland Kick)3–58
- Q3 2:05TXSTDrew Donley 60 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Mason Shipley Kick)3–51
- Q3 3:18TXSTMason Shipley 40 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q3 12:05TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 57 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:34TXSTIsmail Mahdi 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:33TXSTJaden Williams 29 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley PAT failed)3–27
- Q2 10:22USMConnor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 2:12TXSTBrad Jackson 10 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:35TXSTKonner Fox 23 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06TXSTIsmail Mahdi 11 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 6.8
- PassTate Rodemaker 6/15, 63 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRodrigues Clark 15 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecKenyon Clay 5 REC, 43 YDS
- PassJordan McCloud 23/28, 335 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushLincoln Pare 2 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKole Wilson 6 REC, 116 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 48 entering the 4th quarter. Across 81 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Texas State?
Southern Miss 3, Texas State 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
| USM | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 194 | Total yards | 703 |
| 70 | Passing yards | 437 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 266 |
| 14 | First downs | 33 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 9/20 | Comp/Att | 27/34 |
| 3.5 | Yards per pass | 12.9 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 8.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 34:43 | Possession | 25:17 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:41 TXST punt on 4th & 4 at USM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:56TXSTLincoln Pare 68 Yd Run (Beckham Sunderland Kick)3–58
- Q3 2:05TXSTDrew Donley 60 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Mason Shipley Kick)3–51
- Q3 3:18TXSTMason Shipley 40 Yd Field Goal 3–44
- Q3 12:05TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 57 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:34TXSTIsmail Mahdi 15 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)3–34
- Q2 9:33TXSTJaden Williams 29 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley PAT failed)3–27
- Q2 10:22USMConnor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 2:12TXSTBrad Jackson 10 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:35TXSTKonner Fox 23 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06TXSTIsmail Mahdi 11 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1602, USM Elo 1039 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -24.9 (94% to win) — 2.6 points clear of USM's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USM | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -35.7 (#133) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#49) |
| -20 / +16 | offense / defense | +6 / +2 |
| 0.99 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 3.44 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 41% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →