Rutgers vs. USC: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Rutgers4-3

USC3-4

▸

Final

Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
RUTG	3	9	8	0	20
USC	14	14	14	0	42

RUTGTeam statsUSC

434Total yards443

313Pass308

121Rush135

27First downs23

11-223rd down3-6

0Turnovers0

36:28Possession23:32

Q3 0:22USCMakai Lemon 40 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)20–42
Q3 6:32USCMiller Moss 7 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)20–35
Q3 8:11RUTGChristian Dremel 25 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Chris Long Pass to Athan Kaliakmanis for Two-Point Conversion)20–28
Q2 0:00RUTGJai Patel 20 Yd Field Goal 12–28
Q2 1:53USCWoody Marks 22 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)9–28
Q2 4:37RUTGAntwan Raymond 3 Yd Run (Jai Patel PAT failed)9–21
Q2 10:26USCKyle Ford 11 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Michael Lantz Kick)3–21
Q1 2:19USCWoody Marks 1 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)3–14
Q1 4:10RUTGJai Patel 26 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 9:58USCWoody Marks 1 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

USC −15.4

market USC −13.5

Biggest swing

USC +9%

Q1 9:58

Against the number

USC covered

line USC −13.5

USC favored ↑50%RUTG favored ↓

GridpexUSC 100%

Closing line

USC −13.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

USC −15.4

Actual result

RUTG 20 – 42 USC

Rutgers

PassAthan Kaliakmanis 27/47, 313 YDS, 1 TD
RushKyle Monangai 18 CAR, 86 YDS
RecDymere Miller 11 REC, 131 YDS

USC

PassMiller Moss 20/28, 308 YDS, 2 TD
RushWoody Marks 15 CAR, 94 YDS, 3 TD
RecMakai Lemon 4 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD

25.4sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

USC up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 822 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

USC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs San José State56-28 WVillanova vs Colgate42-19 WFurman vs The Citadel28-14 WBoise State vs Wyoming32-7 WFresno State vs Sacramento State46-30

Q1 9:58USC +9%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
Q1 2:19USC +8%
Woody Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
Q3 8:11RUTG +8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Christian Dremel for 25 yds for a TD (Chris Long pass to Athan Kaliakmanis for Two-Point Conversion)
Q3 6:32USC +5%
Miller Moss run for 7 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of Rutgers vs. USC?

Rutgers 20, USC 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.

RUTG

USC

41%

Success rate

61%

0.08

EPA / pass

0.65

0.19

EPA / rush

0.48

36%

Early-down success

64%

42%

Pass success

61%

40%

Rush success

61%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

13%

Stuffed rush rate

58%

Pass rate

55%

5.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.6

RUTG

5.7 yards to go on 3rd down

90 scrimmage snaps

USC

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

RUTG		USC
434	Total yards	443
313	Passing yards	308
121	Rushing yards	135
27	First downs	23
11-22	3rd down	3-6
3-6	4th down	0-0
27/47	Comp/Att	20/28
6.7	Yards per pass	11.0
2.9	Yards per rush	5.9
0	Turnovers	0
4-9	Penalties	5-43
36:28	Possession	23:32

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

USC 1756

RUTG 1432

Projected spread

USC -15.4

incl. home edge

Model pick

USC

85% to win

Market spread

USC -13.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

85%

USC · market 82%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1756, RUTG Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -15.4 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2024

nationally ranked

RUTG2024 season · national rank shownUSC

383.870th

Total yards / game

438.421st

5.588th

Yards / play

6.423rd

207.492nd

Passing yards / game

291.910th

176.544th

Rushing yards / game

146.581st

43.4%34th

3rd down %

44.8%24th

395.996th

Yards allowed / game

377.576th

43.1%100th

3rd down % allowed

33.5%23rd

+445th

Turnover margin

-382nd

4.06th

Penalties / game

5.867th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2024

RUTG		USC
-4.8 (#85)	CORE overall	+16.0 (#21)
+0 / +5	offense / defense	+12 / -4
2.58	points / drive	2.61
2.63	allowed / drive	2.05
24%	three-and-outs	22%
-2	pass over expected	+12

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

RUTGTeam statsUSC

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Rutgers vs. USC?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2024

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Rutgers vs. USC: Final Score & Recap

RUTGTeam statsUSC

How the model called it

What was the final score of Rutgers vs. USC?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups