Northern Iowa vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northern Iowa0-1

07

Hawai'i1-2

▸0036

Final

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	7	0	0	7
HAW	15	7	7	7	36

NORTTeam statsHAW

199Total yards528

127Pass379

72Rush149

13First downs29

5-103rd down6-9

2Turnovers2

26:58Possession33:02

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:58HAWLandon Sims 6 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–36
• Q3 3:21HAWNick Cenacle 1 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–29
• Q2 4:02NORTAidan Dunne 3 Yd Run (Caden Palmer Kick)7–22
• Q2 9:10HAWNick Cenacle 20 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–22
• Q1 0:40HAWPofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Landon Sims Pass to Hunter Higham for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 7:53HAWJonah Panoke 24 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

HAW −10

Against the number

HAW covered

line HAW −10

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HAW did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.1

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

HAW 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff135 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

HAW (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

HAW −10

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 7 – 36 HAW

Leaders

Northern Iowa

• PassAidan Dunne 13/20, 104 YDS
• RushAmauri Pesek-Hickson 6 CAR, 43 YDS
• RecSergio Morancy 4 REC, 38 YDS

Hawai'i

• PassBrayden Schager 35/43, 374 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
• RushLandon Sims 7 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDekel Crowdus 3 REC, 83 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.36

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HAW up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 821 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

HAW went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUSC vs San José State56-28WVillanova vs Colgate42-19WFurman vs The Citadel28-14WBoise State vs Wyoming32-7WFresno State vs Sacramento State46-30

Fourth downs

6 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.NORT 4/4 · HAW 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Iowa vs. Hawai'i?

Northern Iowa 7, Hawai'i 36.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

HAW

30%

Success rate

68%

-0.18

EPA / pass

0.44

0.08

EPA / rush

0.46

23%

Early-down success

65%

22%

Pass success

73%

41%

Rush success

59%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

21%

23%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

59%

Pass rate

67%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.1

NORT

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

54 scrimmage snaps

HAW

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		HAW
199	Total yards	528
127	Passing yards	379
72	Rushing yards	149
13	First downs	29
5-10	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	0-0
17/28	Comp/Att	36/44
4.5	Yards per pass	8.6
3.1	Yards per rush	6.5
2	Turnovers	2
6-46	Penalties	7-75
26:58	Possession	33:02

Fourth downs

6 calls

NORT

4/4 with the model

nothing given up

HAW

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (6)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →HAW 5/9 scoring drives

NORTFUM7 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q1

HAWTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q1

NORTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

HAWTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1

HAWTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

NORTTD8 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q2

HAWINT6 pl, 26 yds· own 35Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 31Q2

HAWINT6 pl, 52 yds· own 12Q2

NORTEND2 pl, 0 yds· own 36Q2

HAWPUNT8 pl, 34 yds· own 15Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 16Q3

HAWTD11 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q3

NORTFUM12 pl, 52 yds· own 22Q3

HAWTD9 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4

NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 24Q4

HAWEND8 pl, 26 yds· own 21Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:58HAWLandon Sims 6 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–36
• Q3 3:21HAWNick Cenacle 1 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–29
• Q2 4:02NORTAidan Dunne 3 Yd Run (Caden Palmer Kick)7–22
• Q2 9:10HAWNick Cenacle 20 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–22
• Q1 0:40HAWPofele Ashlock 6 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Landon Sims Pass to Hunter Higham for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
• Q1 7:53HAWJonah Panoke 24 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →