Indiana vs. Ohio State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IUTeam statsOSU
- Q4 0:35OSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)15–38
- Q4 1:53IUTy Son Lawton 2 Yd Run (Kurtis Rourke Pass to Omar Cooper Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q4 8:56OSUJayden Fielding 45 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q3 6:02OSUJelani Thurman 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–28
- Q3 12:44OSUCaleb Downs 79 Yd Punt Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:21OSUTreVeyon Henderson 4 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:22OSUEmeka Egbuka 11 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:52IUTy Son Lawton 2 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.2
Indiana came in unbeaten and led early in Columbus, then watched the Buckeyes slowly close every door — at the goal line, on the punt, and down the stretch.
For six minutes, the unbeaten visitors looked like they belonged. Indiana took the opening fight to Ohio Stadium, ground its way to the doorstep, and Ty Son Lawton pushed it in from two yards out. Six-fifty-two left in the first quarter, and the Hoosiers led in a building that had spent all autumn waiting to swallow them.
It didn't last, because the home team kept doing the one thing Indiana couldn't: it finished. Late in the first, Will Howard found Carnell Tate for 25 down to the Indiana 35, and the field tilted. By the second quarter Howard was hitting Emeka Egbuka from 11 for the lead, and just before the half — 21 seconds on the clock, the kind of gut-punch margin teams remember in February — TreVeyon Henderson punched in a 4-yard score. Two touchdowns in a half, and the Buckeyes walked off ahead.
- PassKurtis Rourke 8/18, 68 YDS
- RushTy Son Lawton 15 CAR, 79 YDS, 2 TD
- RecElijah Sarratt 3 REC, 40 YDS
- PassWill Howard 22/26, 201 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTreVeyon Henderson 9 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmeka Egbuka 7 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:22OSU +20%
Emeka Egbuka 11 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)
- Q1 6:52IU +17%
Ty Son Lawton 2 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)
- Q2 0:21OSU +17%
TreVeyon Henderson 4 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)
- Q3 12:44OSU +11%
Caleb Downs 79 Yd Punt Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)
- Q2 2:00IU +5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for no gain to the IU 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Indiana vs. Ohio State?
Indiana 15, Ohio State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| IU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Total yards | 316 |
| 68 | Passing yards | 201 |
| 85 | Rushing yards | 115 |
| 16 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 8/18 | Comp/Att | 22/26 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 2.1 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 8-58 |
| 30:40 | Possession | 29:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:41 IU go for it on 4th & 15 at IU 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:35OSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)15–38
- Q4 1:53IUTy Son Lawton 2 Yd Run (Kurtis Rourke Pass to Omar Cooper Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q4 8:56OSUJayden Fielding 45 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q3 6:02OSUJelani Thurman 1 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–28
- Q3 12:44OSUCaleb Downs 79 Yd Punt Return (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–21
- Q2 0:21OSUTreVeyon Henderson 4 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–14
- Q2 7:22OSUEmeka Egbuka 11 Yd pass from Will Howard (Jayden Fielding Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:52IUTy Son Lawton 2 Yd Run (Nicolas Radicic Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OSU Elo 2086, IU Elo 1876 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OSU -10.8 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio State leads 81–13–5 · 30% have been one-possession games
| IU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +27.1 (#6) | CORE overall | +43.5 (#1) |
| +16 / -11 | offense / defense | +25 / -19 |
| 3.60 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 0.97 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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The Hoosiers Touched The Scoreboard Twice By Halftime, And Ohio Stadium Never Let Them Touch It Again
Indiana came in unbeaten and led early in Columbus, then watched the Buckeyes slowly close every door — at the goal line, on the punt, and down the stretch.
Indiana had its chances to make it a brawl and kept letting them slip. Jailin Walker jumped a Howard throw and returned it to the Ohio State 11 in the second quarter — a gift, a short field, a way back in. The drive went nowhere. That was the night in miniature: one offense moved the chains on schedule, the other needed a miracle to manufacture anything, and the miracles wouldn't come.
The Punt That Broke It Open
The third quarter is where Columbus put it away, and fittingly, it didn't even need the offense. With 12:44 left in the third, Indiana lined up to punt, and Caleb Downs fielded it and ran 79 yards untouched — a single play that turned a manageable deficit into a canyon. Minutes later Howard floated a 1-yarder to Jelani Thurman, and the lead swelled past three scores. The crowd had its rout.
Give Indiana this: the Hoosiers never folded. Down big in the fourth, Lawton bulled in his second short touchdown and Kurtis Rourke found Omar Cooper Jr. for two, a flicker of fight with 1:53 to play. But the answer came fast and cruel — Henderson ripped off 39 yards to the Indiana 1 on the very next series, and Howard sneaked it in himself with 35 seconds left, the kind of late dagger that says the home team simply had more left.
The story of the night is the goal line, and which team owned it. Ohio State kept marching down and punching it in — Egbuka, Henderson, Thurman, Howard, all from inside the 11. Indiana kept getting close and getting nothing: a first-quarter drive that died at the 9, a second-quarter trip that stalled with an incompletion to Jeremiah Smith. Lawton's two short scores were all the Hoosiers could pry loose. You don't beat a team like this on a few good moments. You beat it by finishing, and Indiana couldn't.
So the unbeaten season took its first bruise in the loudest place it could have. Indiana led in the first quarter and trailed by 23 at the end, and in between Ohio State quietly proved the gap that the standings had hidden: when it got near the end zone, it scored, and when Indiana got near the end zone, it didn't. That's the whole game. That's usually the whole sport.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →