Ball State vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsMIA
- Q4 6:40MIAJordan Lyle 7 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)0–62
- Q4 11:46MIAElija Lofton 40 Yd pass from Emory Williams (Abram Murray Kick)0–55
- Q4 14:49MIAAjay Allen 56 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)0–48
- Q3 3:24MIAAndres Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal 0–41
- Q3 12:26MIAJacolby George 17 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–38
- Q2 1:30MIAXavier Restrepo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:53MIAElijah Arroyo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–24
- Q2 4:46MIAChris Johnson Jr. 37 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:25MIAXavier Restrepo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:15MIAAndres Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassKadin Semonza 16/26, 111 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBraedon Sloan 5 CAR, 13 YDS
- RecBraedon Sloan 4 REC, 41 YDS
- PassCam Ward 19/28, 346 YDS, 5 TD
- RushAjay Allen 7 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacolby George 6 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 196 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:25MIA +9%
Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
- Q1 6:15MIA +5%
Andres Borregales 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. Miami?
Ball State 0, Miami 62.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| BALL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 115 | Total yards | 750 |
| 109 | Passing yards | 507 |
| 6 | Rushing yards | 243 |
| 9 | First downs | 31 |
| 1-12 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 30/40 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 12.7 |
| 0.3 | Yards per rush | 7.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 8-85 |
| 27:01 | Possession | 32:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:19 BALL go for it on 4th & 8 at BALL 48. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:40MIAJordan Lyle 7 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)0–62
- Q4 11:46MIAElija Lofton 40 Yd pass from Emory Williams (Abram Murray Kick)0–55
- Q4 14:49MIAAjay Allen 56 Yd Run (Abram Murray Kick)0–48
- Q3 3:24MIAAndres Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal 0–41
- Q3 12:26MIAJacolby George 17 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–38
- Q2 1:30MIAXavier Restrepo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–31
- Q2 1:53MIAElijah Arroyo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–24
- Q2 4:46MIAChris Johnson Jr. 37 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–17
- Q1 1:25MIAXavier Restrepo 21 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Andres Borregales Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:15MIAAndres Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1618, BALL Elo 1341 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -13.5 (82% to win) — 23.0 points clear of BALL's market line of -36.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.5 (#125) | CORE overall | +22.9 (#8) |
| -5 / +16 | offense / defense | +19 / -3 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 3.79 |
| 3.63 | allowed / drive | 2.34 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| +8 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →