Western Illinois vs. New Mexico State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Western Illinois
New Mexico State0-1
▸Final
Aggie Memorial Stadium
WESTTeam statsNMSU
280Total yards650
248Pass380
32Rush270
17First downs27
8-163rd down7-10
0Turnovers0
27:05Possession32:55
- Q4 4:13NMSUMakhilyn Young 3 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–58
- Q4 8:49NMSUJordin Parker 63 Yd pass from Eli Stowers (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–51
- Q4 11:18NMSUStar Thomas 25 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–44
- Q3 2:38WESTDonald McKinney 26 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)21–37
- Q3 4:38NMSUJonathan Brady 80 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–37
- Q3 7:58NMSUBryce Childress 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–30
- Q3 11:34NMSUEthan Albertson 37 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 0:05WESTLudovick Choquette 21 Yd Run (Owen Valek Kick)14–20
- Q2 2:23NMSUMonte Watkins 5 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–20
- Q2 8:42WESTJaylin Jackson 5 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:53NMSUEli Stowers 4 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)0–13
- Q1 11:29NMSUStar Thomas 20 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson PAT failed)0–6
How the model called it
Market line
NMSU −21
Against the number
NMSU covered
line NMSU −21
What the numbers say
- WEST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NMSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.2 vs 3rd & 4.3
- WEST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate
Kickoff139 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NMSU (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NMSU 100%
Closing line
NMSU −21
Closing total
55.0
Model line
—
Actual result
WEST 21 – 58 NMSU
Western Illinois
- PassMatt Morrissey 18/32, 248 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLudovick Choquette 11 CAR, 38 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSeth Glatz 3 REC, 73 YDS
New Mexico State
- PassDiego Pavia 16/20, 317 YDS, 2 TD
- RushStar Thomas 12 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJonathan Brady 4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
30.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
118
Points / snap
0.67
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNMSU up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,240 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
96%
NMSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. New Mexico State?
Western Illinois 21, New Mexico State 58.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NMSU) was correct.
WEST
NMSU
35%
Success rate
67%
0.35
EPA / pass
1.07
-0.17
EPA / rush
0.51
30%
Early-down success
66%
47%
Pass success
59%
20%
Rush success
72%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
21%
32%
Stuffed rush rate
13%
56%
Pass rate
36%
7.2
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.3
WEST
7.2 yards to go on 3rd down
57 scrimmage snaps
NMSU
4.3 yards to go on 3rd down
61 scrimmage snaps
| WEST | NMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 650 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 380 |
| 32 | Rushing yards | 270 |
| 17 | First downs | 27 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 17/22 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 17.3 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-70 | Penalties | 6-73 |
| 27:05 | Possession | 32:55 |
WEST
6/7 with the model
nothing given up
NMSU
3/3 with the model
nothing given up
No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEST 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NMSU 9/12 scoring drives
NMSUTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
WESTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
NMSUPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 39Q1
WESTPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 27Q1
NMSUTD11 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q1
WESTTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NMSUTD11 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2
WESTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
NMSUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
WESTPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q3
NMSUFG7 pl, 41 yds· own 39Q3
WESTPUNT5 pl, 6 yds· own 40Q3
NMSUTD2 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q3
WESTMISS9 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q3
NMSUTD1 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
WESTTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
NMSUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WESTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q4
NMSUTD2 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4
WESTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 25Q4
NMSUTD5 pl, 61 yds· own 39Q4
WESTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 35Q4
NMSUEND4 pl, 41 yds· opp 45Q4
- Q4 4:13NMSUMakhilyn Young 3 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–58
- Q4 8:49NMSUJordin Parker 63 Yd pass from Eli Stowers (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–51
- Q4 11:18NMSUStar Thomas 25 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)21–44
- Q3 2:38WESTDonald McKinney 26 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)21–37
- Q3 4:38NMSUJonathan Brady 80 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–37
- Q3 7:58NMSUBryce Childress 75 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Ethan Albertson Kick)14–30
- Q3 11:34NMSUEthan Albertson 37 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 0:05WESTLudovick Choquette 21 Yd Run (Owen Valek Kick)14–20
- Q2 2:23NMSUMonte Watkins 5 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)7–20
- Q2 8:42WESTJaylin Jackson 5 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:53NMSUEli Stowers 4 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson Kick)0–13
- Q1 11:29NMSUStar Thomas 20 Yd Run (Ethan Albertson PAT failed)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →