South Alabama vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsULM
- Q4 1:20USAJeremiah Webb 3 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)55–7
- Q4 10:33USADiego Guajardo 46 Yd Field Goal 48–7
- Q3 1:23USAKentrel Bullock 30 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)45–7
- Q3 4:46USALa'Damian Webb 1 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00ULMTyrone Howell 14 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Derek McCormick Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:23USAMarco Lee Jr. 10 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–0
- Q2 9:57USACaullin Lacy 44 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)24–0
- Q2 13:55USADiego Guajardo 37 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 6:29USABrandon Crum 3 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:57USAKentrel Bullock 5 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCarter Bradley 20/29, 303 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLa'Damian Webb 19 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCaullin Lacy 7 REC, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJiya Wright 13/28, 112 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJiya Wright 13 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecTyrone Howell 4 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:57USA +12%
Kentrel Bullock run for 5 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q1 6:29USA +8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 3 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. UL Monroe?
South Alabama 55, UL Monroe 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USA) was correct.
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 589 | Total yards | 250 |
| 387 | Passing yards | 112 |
| 202 | Rushing yards | 138 |
| 32 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 27/39 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 9-64 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 36:30 | Possession | 23:30 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:16 ULM go for it on 4th & 6 at USA 16. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:20USAJeremiah Webb 3 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Diego Guajardo Kick)55–7
- Q4 10:33USADiego Guajardo 46 Yd Field Goal 48–7
- Q3 1:23USAKentrel Bullock 30 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)45–7
- Q3 4:46USALa'Damian Webb 1 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)38–7
- Q2 0:00ULMTyrone Howell 14 Yd pass from Jiya Wright (Derek McCormick Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:23USAMarco Lee Jr. 10 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–0
- Q2 9:57USACaullin Lacy 44 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)24–0
- Q2 13:55USADiego Guajardo 37 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 6:29USABrandon Crum 3 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)14–0
- Q1 10:57USAKentrel Bullock 5 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1189, USA Elo 1511 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +10.5 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouth Alabama leads 7–5 · South Alabama has won 4 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#30) | CORE overall | -22.7 (#129) |
| +6 / -5 | offense / defense | -17 / +6 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 1.16 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 2.88 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 41% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →