South Alabama vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsTULN
- Q4 4:48TULNValentino Ambrosio 27 Yd Field Goal 17–37
- Q4 12:44TULNValentino Ambrosio 30 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 4:27TULNJha'Quan Jackson 48 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:12USADevin Voisin 7 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:39USADiego Guajardo 36 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 7:39TULNLawrence Keys III 47 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:34TULNJha'Quan Jackson 47 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:54USACarter Bradley 4 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:40TULNValentino Ambrosio 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:09TULNChris Brazzell II 4 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassCarter Bradley 23/30, 190 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLa'Damian Webb 9 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecJamaal Pritchett 5 REC, 63 YDS
- PassMichael Pratt 14/15, 294 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMakhi Hughes 8 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecJha'Quan Jackson 3 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:27TULN +15%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 48 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
- Q2 11:54USA +14%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 10:34TULN +13%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 47 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
- Q1 13:09TULN +13%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 4 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
- Q3 7:12USA +12%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 7 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 7:39TULN +7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 47 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Tulane?
South Alabama 17, Tulane 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| USA | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total yards | 436 |
| 190 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 142 |
| 18 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/30 | Comp/Att | 14/15 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 19.6 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:09 USA punt on 4th & 1 at USA 23. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:48TULNValentino Ambrosio 27 Yd Field Goal 17–37
- Q4 12:44TULNValentino Ambrosio 30 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q3 4:27TULNJha'Quan Jackson 48 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:12USADevin Voisin 7 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:39USADiego Guajardo 36 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 7:39TULNLawrence Keys III 47 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:34TULNJha'Quan Jackson 47 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)7–17
- Q2 11:54USACarter Bradley 4 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:40TULNValentino Ambrosio 29 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 13:09TULNChris Brazzell II 4 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1640, USA Elo 1490 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -8.4 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#30) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#56) |
| +6 / -5 | offense / defense | -1 / -2 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 1.90 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →