Oregon State vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsSJSU
- Q4 0:04SJSUBranden Alvarez 19 Yd pass from Jay Butterfield (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)42–17
- Q4 3:13ORSTDeshaun Fenwick 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)42–10
- Q4 10:13ORSTAnthony Gould 28 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)35–10
- Q4 14:52SJSUSam Olson 0 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)28–10
- Q3 6:02ORSTJeremiah Noga 31 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:14ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)21–3
- Q2 4:21ORSTJack Velling 14 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–3
- Q2 9:24SJSUKyler Halvorsen 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:51ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDJ Uiagalelei 20/25, 239 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDamien Martinez 18 CAR, 145 YDS
- RecAnthony Gould 3 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChevan Cordeiro 18/32, 152 YDS
- RushQuali Conley 11 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecSam Olson 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORST up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 582 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:51ORST +14%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
- Q2 4:21ORST +13%
DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jack Velling for 14 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
- Q2 9:24SJSU +8%
Kyler Halvorsen 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:14ORST +6%
DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. San José State?
Oregon State 42, San José State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORST) was correct.
| ORST | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 473 | Total yards | 288 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 197 | Rushing yards | 56 |
| 27 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-8 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/28 | Comp/Att | 25/42 |
| 9.9 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-76 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 31:55 | Possession | 28:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:15 SJSU punt on 4th & 14 at ORST 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:04SJSUBranden Alvarez 19 Yd pass from Jay Butterfield (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)42–17
- Q4 3:13ORSTDeshaun Fenwick 3 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)42–10
- Q4 10:13ORSTAnthony Gould 28 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)35–10
- Q4 14:52SJSUSam Olson 0 Yd Run (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)28–10
- Q3 6:02ORSTJeremiah Noga 31 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)28–3
- Q2 0:14ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)21–3
- Q2 4:21ORSTJack Velling 14 Yd pass from DJ Uiagalelei (Atticus Sappington Kick)14–3
- Q2 9:24SJSUKyler Halvorsen 41 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 5:51ORSTDJ Uiagalelei 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SJSU Elo 1412, ORST Elo 1695 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU +8.9 (29% to win) — 6.6 points clear of SJSU's market line of +15.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon State leads 5–3 · 25% have been one-possession games
| ORST | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.5 (#19) | CORE overall | +2.5 (#53) |
| +12 / -4 | offense / defense | +4 / +2 |
| 2.92 | points / drive | 2.51 |
| 2.32 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →