#7Quali Conley

RB·San José State·2023

Quali Conley is a Explosive Back for San José State. Quali's 2023 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 110 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Quali Conley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

842 Rush yards9 Rush TD131 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions269 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume55
Explosiveness68
Consistency57
Receiving63

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.18 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.14 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs New Mexico (SP+ -17).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@USC	L28-56	9.4	6	108	18.0	0	2	17	0	—
1	vsOregon State	L17-42	12.6	11	34	3.1	0	2	18	0	-0.02
2	vsCal Poly	W59-3	—	12	60	5.0	2	—	—	—	0.30
3	@Toledo	L17-21	3.7	3	11	3.7	0	1	0	0	-0.29
4	vsAir Force	L20-45	5.9	1	7	7.0	0	5	44	0	0.50
6	@Boise State	L27-35	5.9	3	9	3.0	1	2	25	0	0.96
7	@New Mexico	W52-24	-16.5	10	123	12.3	1	1	61	0	1.14
8	vsUtah State	W42-21	-10.9	15	74	4.9	2	2	20	0	—
9	@Hawai'i	W35-0	-16.4	19	73	3.8	1	4	48	0	0.05
11	vsFresno State	W42-18	2.5	15	93	6.2	0	1	17	0	0.06
12	vsSan Diego State	W24-13	-10.3	13	155	11.9	1	2	7	0	0.40
13	@UNLV	W37-31	1.4	19	62	3.3	0	3	7	0	-0.05
20	vsCoastal Carolina	L14-24	-1.2	4	33	8.3	1	2	5	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

19.2%

Passing plays

6.6%

Rushing plays

32.3%

Standard downs

22.6%

Passing downs

12.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).