Old Dominion vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsLIB
- Q4 1:27ODUJavon Harvey 5 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–39
- Q3 4:13LIBNick Brown 40 Yd Field Goal 3–39
- Q2 0:54LIBCJ Daniels 8 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)3–36
- Q2 4:20ODUEthan Sanchez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–29
- Q2 7:03LIBNoah Frith 42 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)0–29
- Q2 11:20LIBKaidon Salter 4 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)0–22
- Q1 5:44LIBKaidon Salter 2 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)0–15
- Q1 11:30LIBCJ Daniels 43 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ODU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 5.8 vs 3rd & 3.7
- PassGrant Wilson 23/42, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushGrant Wilson 16 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecJavon Harvey 12 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKaidon Salter 13/22, 225 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushQuinton Cooley 19 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecCJ Daniels 7 REC, 137 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 337 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:30LIB +10%
CJ Daniels 43 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)
- Q1 5:44LIB +7%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. Liberty?
Old Dominion 10, Liberty 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| ODU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 455 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 225 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 230 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-22 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 4-7 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/42 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 3.8 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 4-50 |
| 28:21 | Possession | 31:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:55 ODU go for it on 4th & 7 at LIB 13. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.73 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:27ODUJavon Harvey 5 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–39
- Q3 4:13LIBNick Brown 40 Yd Field Goal 3–39
- Q2 0:54LIBCJ Daniels 8 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)3–36
- Q2 4:20ODUEthan Sanchez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–29
- Q2 7:03LIBNoah Frith 42 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)0–29
- Q2 11:20LIBKaidon Salter 4 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)0–22
- Q1 5:44LIBKaidon Salter 2 Yd Run (Nick Brown Kick)0–15
- Q1 11:30LIBCJ Daniels 43 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Nick Brown Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1650, ODU Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB -12.8 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ODU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#79) | CORE overall | +17.4 (#15) |
| -5 / -2 | offense / defense | +21 / +3 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 3.59 |
| 2.11 | allowed / drive | 2.01 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →