McNeese vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

McNeese

07

Florida0-1

▸0049

Final

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MCNE	0	0	0	7	7
FLA	13	13	16	7	49

MCNETeam statsFLA

112Total yards560

66Pass233

46Rush327

6First downs33

2-103rd down5-6

0Turnovers1

23:51Possession36:09

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:24MCNEColeby Hamm 8 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–49
• Q4 13:00FLATreyaun Webb 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–49
• Q3 2:54FLATeam Safety 0–42
• Q3 3:45FLARicky Pearsall 50 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–40
• Q3 9:27FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 8 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–33
• Q2 0:34FLATrevor Etienne 8 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–26
• Q2 7:04FLATreyaun Webb 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
• Q1 0:28FLAGraham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–13
• Q1 10:59FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 2 Yd Run 0–6

How the model called it

Market line

FLA −48.5

Against the number

MCNE covered

line FLA −48.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FLA 100%50%MCNE 100%

Kickoff130 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FLA (top)MCNE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FLA 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FLA −48.5

Closing total

55.0

Model line

—

Actual result

MCNE 7 – 49 FLA

Leaders

McNeese

• PassNate Glantz 6/13, 62 YDS
• RushD'Angelo Durham 11 CAR, 45 YDS
• RecJon McCall 1 REC, 18 YDS

Florida

• PassGraham Mertz 14/17, 193 YDS, 1 TD
• RushMontrell Johnson Jr. 15 CAR, 119 YDS, 2 TD
• RecRicky Pearsall 6 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

114

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FLA up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 209 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

FLA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WArmy vs Delaware State57-0WWashington State vs Northern Colorado64-21WTexas vs Texas Tech57-7WLehigh vs Wagner49-13WMontana State vs Eastern Washington57-14

Fourth downs

9 calls

MCNE gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.MCNE 6/7 · FLA 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of McNeese vs. Florida?

McNeese 7, Florida 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FLA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MCNE

FLA

23%

Success rate

70%

0.02

EPA / pass

0.65

-0.20

EPA / rush

0.55

21%

Early-down success

69%

35%

Pass success

67%

13%

Rush success

72%

8%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

26%

Stuffed rush rate

8%

43%

Pass rate

32%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.8

MCNE

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

40 scrimmage snaps

FLA

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MCNE		FLA
112	Total yards	560
66	Passing yards	233
46	Rushing yards	327
6	First downs	33
2-10	3rd down	5-6
1-1	4th down	0-0
7/14	Comp/Att	18/23
4.7	Yards per pass	10.1
1.8	Yards per rush	6.4
0	Turnovers	1
5-34	Penalties	4-20
23:51	Possession	36:09

Fourth downs

9 calls

MCNE

6/7 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

FLA

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q1 6:06 MCNE punt on 4th & 20 at FLA 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.

Every call, priced (9)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MCNE 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →FLA 7/10 scoring drives

FLATD9 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

MCNEPUNT9 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q1

FLATD11 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q1

MCNEPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1

FLATD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q2

FLATD10 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

MCNEEND1 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q2

MCNEPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q3

FLATD7 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q3

MCNEPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3

FLATD5 pl, 84 yds· own 16Q3

MCNESAF2 pl, -1 yds· own 4Q3

FLATD9 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

MCNEPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q4

FLAPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 17Q4

MCNEPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 32Q4

FLAFUM4 pl, 7 yds· own 1Q4

MCNETD1 pl, 8 yds· opp 8Q4

FLAEND4 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:24MCNEColeby Hamm 8 Yd Run (Garrison Smith Kick)7–49
• Q4 13:00FLATreyaun Webb 5 Yd Run (Trey Smack Kick)0–49
• Q3 2:54FLATeam Safety 0–42
• Q3 3:45FLARicky Pearsall 50 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–40
• Q3 9:27FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 8 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–33
• Q2 0:34FLATrevor Etienne 8 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–26
• Q2 7:04FLATreyaun Webb 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
• Q1 0:28FLAGraham Mertz 1 Yd Run (Adam Mihalek Kick)0–13
• Q1 10:59FLAMontrell Johnson Jr. 2 Yd Run 0–6

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →