Louisiana vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsODU
- Q4 9:13ULJacob Kibodi 37 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)31–38
- Q4 12:28ODUKelby Williams 37 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–38
- Q4 14:57ULTerrence Williams 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)24–31
- Q3 4:43ODUReymello Murphy 61 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–31
- Q3 12:36ODUReymello Murphy 36 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:18ULBen Wooldridge 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:15ODUGrant Wilson 3 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:00ODUEthan Sanchez 39 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:32ULKenneth Almendares 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:26ODUAhmarian Granger 30 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:59ULHarvey Broussard 3 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.0 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassBen Wooldridge 25/36, 285 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJacob Kibodi 10 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecJacob Bernard 3 REC, 70 YDS
- PassGrant Wilson 13/19, 247 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKeshawn Wicks 17 CAR, 104 YDS
- RecReymello Murphy 2 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:36ODU +26%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 36 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 0:18UL +24%
Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q2 4:15ODU +24%
Grant Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q4 14:57UL +21%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
- Q3 4:43ODU +19%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Reymello Murphy for 61 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q4 12:28ODU +17%
Grant Wilson pass complete to Kelby Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Old Dominion?
Louisiana 31, Old Dominion 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UL | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 392 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 247 |
| 169 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 24 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/36 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 13.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-70 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 37:31 | Possession | 22:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:00 UL punt on 4th & 5 at UL 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:13ULJacob Kibodi 37 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)31–38
- Q4 12:28ODUKelby Williams 37 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)24–38
- Q4 14:57ULTerrence Williams 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)24–31
- Q3 4:43ODUReymello Murphy 61 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–31
- Q3 12:36ODUReymello Murphy 36 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)17–24
- Q2 0:18ULBen Wooldridge 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)17–17
- Q2 4:15ODUGrant Wilson 3 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)10–17
- Q2 12:00ODUEthan Sanchez 39 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 3:32ULKenneth Almendares 28 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:26ODUAhmarian Granger 30 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Ethan Sanchez Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:59ULHarvey Broussard 3 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1333, UL Elo 1537 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU +5.8 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 (#66) | CORE overall | -3.3 (#79) |
| +7 / +8 | offense / defense | -5 / -2 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 2.11 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →