Georgia Tech vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsUVA
- Q4 7:56GTJamal Haynes 43 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)45–17
- Q4 8:47UVAKobe Pace 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)38–17
- Q4 10:57GTDontae Smith 10 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)38–10
- Q3 12:41GTEric Singleton Jr. 58 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 0:28GTDontae Smith 33 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:24GTHaynes King 34 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)17–7
- Q2 8:42GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:26GTAidan Birr 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:30UVAJoshua Rawlings 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHaynes King 23/30, 208 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJamal Haynes 17 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEric Singleton Jr. 5 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Colandrea 21/37, 200 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAnthony Colandrea 7 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecMalik Washington 11 REC, 109 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:24GT +23%
Haynes King run for 34 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
- Q2 0:28GT +17%
Dontae Smith run for 33 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
- Q3 7:40UVA +11%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Grant Misch
- Q3 12:41GT +9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 58 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Virginia?
Georgia Tech 45, Virginia 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 514 | Total yards | 351 |
| 209 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 305 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 28 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 24/33 | Comp/Att | 23/40 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 4-38 |
| 34:09 | Possession | 25:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:53 GT punt on 4th & 4 at UVA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:56GTJamal Haynes 43 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)45–17
- Q4 8:47UVAKobe Pace 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)38–17
- Q4 10:57GTDontae Smith 10 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)38–10
- Q3 12:41GTEric Singleton Jr. 58 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 39 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 0:28GTDontae Smith 33 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)24–7
- Q2 2:24GTHaynes King 34 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)17–7
- Q2 8:42GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:26GTAidan Birr 41 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 8:30UVAJoshua Rawlings 9 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Will Bettridge Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1354, GT Elo 1344 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -2.8 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #112 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →The series is level at 22–22–1 · 53% have been one-possession games
| GT | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.5 (#58) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#87) |
| +7 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / +3 |
| 2.52 | points / drive | 1.63 |
| 2.72 | allowed / drive | 2.67 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →