Campbell vs. Monmouth: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Campbell

▸0045

Monmouth0-1

0031

Final

Kessler StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
CAMP	7	10	14	14	45
MONM	7	16	0	8	31

CAMPTeam statsMONM

435Total yards423

184Pass211

251Rush212

25First downs24

7-133rd down5-16

1Turnovers2

17:30Possession42:30

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:52CAMPChris McKay Jr. 26 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)45–31
• Q4 1:56MONMJaden Shirden 22 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Marquez McCray Pass to Jack Neri for Two-Point Conversion)38–31
• Q4 9:37CAMPNaQuari Rogers 32 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)31–31
• Q3 1:21CAMPHajj-Malik Williams 3 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)31–23
• Q3 6:49CAMPNaQuari Rogers 4 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)24–23
• Q2 0:04CAMPCaleb Dowden 42 Yd Field Goal 17–23
• Q2 1:27CAMPChaney Fitzgerald 12 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden Kick)14–23
• Q2 4:19MONMJaden Shirden 35 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)7–23
• Q2 4:33MONMMichael Calton Jr. 26 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 13:41MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:33CAMPrun for 2 yds for a TD7–7
• Q1 5:33CAMPNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:17MONMSone Ntoh 5 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MONM −3

Against the number

CAMP covered

line MONM −3

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONM 100%50%CAMP 100%

Kickoff156 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONM (top)CAMP (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONM 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONM −3

Closing total

61.5

Model line

—

Actual result

CAMP 45 – 31 MONM

Leaders

Campbell

• PassHajj-Malik Williams 16/25, 184 YDS, 1 TD
• RushNaQuari Rogers 21 CAR, 152 YDS, 3 TD
• RecChaney Fitzgerald 8 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD

Monmouth

• PassMarquez McCray 19/36, 211 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushJaden Shirden 31 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDymere Miller 9 REC, 138 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

20.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

146

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CAMP up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,586 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

85%

CAMP went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana vs Butler35-20WKansas vs BYU38-27WLSU vs Arkansas34-31WTulane vs UAB35-23LLSU vs Ole Miss49-55

Fourth downs

16 calls

CAMP gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.CAMP 5/6 · MONM 10/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Campbell vs. Monmouth?

Campbell 45, Monmouth 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MONM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

CAMP

MONM

51%

Success rate

44%

0.07

EPA / pass

-0.01

0.63

EPA / rush

0.34

50%

Early-down success

46%

32%

Pass success

44%

68%

Rush success

45%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

6%

3%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

48%

Pass rate

42%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

CAMP

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

MONM

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

81 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

CAMP		MONM
435	Total yards	423
184	Passing yards	211
251	Rushing yards	212
25	First downs	24
7-13	3rd down	5-16
3-4	4th down	5-9
16/25	Comp/Att	19/36
7.4	Yards per pass	5.9
5.6	Yards per rush	5.0
1	Turnovers	2
3-20	Penalties	6-55
17:30	Possession	42:30

Fourth downs

16 calls

CAMP

5/6 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONM

10/10 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 0:57 CAMP go for it on 4th & 12 at MONM 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.37 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

CAMP 6/8 scoring drives← own end zone →MONM 5/8 scoring drives

CAMPDOWNS6 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1

MONMTD10 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q1

CAMPTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

MONMTD15 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

CAMPPUNT7 pl, 10 yds· own 35Q2

MONMFG11 pl, 75 yds· own 16Q2

MONMTD1 pl, 35 yds· own 35Q2

CAMPTD8 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

MONMPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2

CAMPFG7 pl, 26 yds· own 49Q2

MONMDOWNS8 pl, 27 yds· own 0Q3

CAMPTD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

MONMDOWNS5 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q3

CAMPTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q3

MONMTD12 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3

CAMPTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:52CAMPChris McKay Jr. 26 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)45–31
• Q4 1:56MONMJaden Shirden 22 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Marquez McCray Pass to Jack Neri for Two-Point Conversion)38–31
• Q4 9:37CAMPNaQuari Rogers 32 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)31–31
• Q3 1:21CAMPHajj-Malik Williams 3 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)31–23
• Q3 6:49CAMPNaQuari Rogers 4 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)24–23
• Q2 0:04CAMPCaleb Dowden 42 Yd Field Goal 17–23
• Q2 1:27CAMPChaney Fitzgerald 12 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caleb Dowden Kick)14–23
• Q2 4:19MONMJaden Shirden 35 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)7–23
• Q2 4:33MONMMichael Calton Jr. 26 Yd Field Goal 7–17
• Q2 13:41MONMSone Ntoh 4 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:33CAMPrun for 2 yds for a TD7–7
• Q1 5:33CAMPNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Caleb Dowden Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:17MONMSone Ntoh 5 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →