Arizona State vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 0:08UTAHCharlie Vincent 22 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–55
- Q4 11:04UTAHNate Johnson 59 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–48
- Q4 12:59UTAHLanden King 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)3–41
- Q3 3:47UTAHCole Becker 43 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q3 12:26UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 54 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:54UTAHMunir McClain 20 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)3–24
- Q2 4:05UTAHCole Becker 30 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 3:08ASUDario Longhetto 35 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:37UTAHDevaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36UTAHDevaughn Vele 11 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ASU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.3 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassJacob Conover 5/22, 41 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam Skattebo 12 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecGiovanni Sanders 1 REC, 20 YDS
- PassBryson Barnes 19/28, 161 YDS, 4 TD
- RushJa'Quinden Jackson 13 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevaughn Vele 7 REC, 56 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 341 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:36UTAH +10%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 11 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
- Q1 6:37UTAH +6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Devaughn Vele for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Becker KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Utah?
Arizona State 3, Utah 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Total yards | 513 |
| 40 | Passing yards | 161 |
| 43 | Rushing yards | 352 |
| 6 | First downs | 26 |
| 1-16 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 8/29 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 1.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-57 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 23:27 | Possession | 36:33 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:08UTAHCharlie Vincent 22 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–55
- Q4 11:04UTAHNate Johnson 59 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–48
- Q4 12:59UTAHLanden King 2 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)3–41
- Q3 3:47UTAHCole Becker 43 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q3 12:26UTAHJa'Quinden Jackson 54 Yd Run (Cole Becker Kick)3–31
- Q2 0:54UTAHMunir McClain 20 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)3–24
- Q2 4:05UTAHCole Becker 30 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q1 3:08ASUDario Longhetto 35 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 6:37UTAHDevaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36UTAHDevaughn Vele 11 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Cole Becker Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1702, ASU Elo 1434 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -13.1 (81% to win) — 2.6 points clear of UTAH's market line of -10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArizona State leads 23–13 · 28% have been one-possession games
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.7 (#103) | CORE overall | -0.1 (#62) |
| -8 / +4 | offense / defense | -8 / -8 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →