Texas State vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TXSTTeam statsNEV
- Q4 2:23TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 10 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)14–38
- Q3 3:51NEVBentlee Sanders 34 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)7–38
- Q3 4:05NEVToa Taua 2 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–31
- Q3 5:37NEVNate Cox 8 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:20NEVBrandon Talton 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 4:09TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 20 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:30NEVDevonte Lee 5 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17NEVToa Taua 4 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.2
- NEV lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassLayne Hatcher 34/52, 293 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJahmyl Jeter 10 CAR, 22 YDS
- RecAshtyn Hawkins 11 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- PassShane Illingworth 11/13, 101 YDS
- RushJake Barlage 1 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecJamaal Bell 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 30 entering the 4th quarter. Across 533 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:20NEV +11%
T.Taua rushed to TXST End Zone for 4 yards. T.Taua for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:07TXST +8%
L.Hatcher pass complete to NEV 20. Catch made by A.Hawkins at NEV 20. Gain of 20 yards. A.Hawkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:38NEV +6%
D.Lee rushed to TXST End Zone for 5 yards. D.Lee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Nevada?
Texas State 14, Nevada 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NEV) was correct.
| TXST | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total yards | 278 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 144 |
| -11 | Rushing yards | 134 |
| 15 | First downs | 13 |
| 8-20 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 34/52 | Comp/Att | 16/20 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| -0.4 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-97 | Penalties | 5-52 |
| 30:33 | Possession | 29:27 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:51 NEV go for it on 4th & 5 at TXST 20. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:23TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 10 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)14–38
- Q3 3:51NEVBentlee Sanders 34 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Talton Kick)7–38
- Q3 4:05NEVToa Taua 2 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–31
- Q3 5:37NEVNate Cox 8 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–24
- Q3 10:20NEVBrandon Talton 50 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 4:09TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 20 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)7–14
- Q1 1:30NEVDevonte Lee 5 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:17NEVToa Taua 4 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1556, TXST Elo 1270 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV -13.8 (82% to win) — 15.8 points clear of NEV's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #104 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| TXST | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.5 (#115) | CORE overall | -19.9 (#123) |
| -13 / +3 | offense / defense | -15 / +5 |
| 1.44 | points / drive | 1.21 |
| 2.05 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →