Georgia Southern vs. Nebraska: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsNEB
- Q4 0:36GASOKyle Vantrease 8 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)45–42
- Q4 3:05NEBCasey Thompson 1 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)38–42
- Q4 14:42GASOAlex Raynor 19 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q3 3:18NEBAjay Allen 7 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)35–35
- Q3 12:12GASOAmare Jones 10 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex Raynor Kick)35–28
- Q2 1:50NEBCasey Thompson 2 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)28–28
- Q2 4:00GASOGerald Green 47 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)28–21
- Q2 7:27GASOGerald Green 1 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)21–21
- Q2 8:25NEBAnthony Grant 4 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:40NEBBrody Belt 21 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:21GASOJalen White 26 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:17NEBCasey Thompson 8 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:02GASOJalen White 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GASO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.5 vs 3rd & 3.5
- PassKyle Vantrease 37/56, 409 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushGerald Green 10 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDerwin Burgess Jr. 12 REC, 119 YDS
- PassCasey Thompson 23/34, 318 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAnthony Grant 27 CAR, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarcus Washington 6 REC, 123 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:36GASO +82%
Kyle Vantrease run for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
- Q4 3:05NEB +48%
Casey Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Timmy Bleekrode KICK)
- Q3 12:12GASO +27%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 10 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
- Q3 3:18NEB +26%
Ajay Allen run for 7 yds for a TD, (Timmy Bleekrode KICK)
- Q2 4:00GASO +23%
Gerald Green run for 47 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
- Q2 1:50NEB +21%
Casey Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Timmy Bleekrode KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Nebraska?
Georgia Southern 45, Nebraska 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NEB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| 642 | Total yards | 575 |
| 409 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 233 | Rushing yards | 257 |
| 34 | First downs | 33 |
| 9-13 | 3rd down | 9-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 37/56 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 7.8 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 10-77 |
| 28:04 | Possession | 31:56 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:42 GASO field goal on 4th & 2 at NEB 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36GASOKyle Vantrease 8 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)45–42
- Q4 3:05NEBCasey Thompson 1 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)38–42
- Q4 14:42GASOAlex Raynor 19 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q3 3:18NEBAjay Allen 7 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)35–35
- Q3 12:12GASOAmare Jones 10 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex Raynor Kick)35–28
- Q2 1:50NEBCasey Thompson 2 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)28–28
- Q2 4:00GASOGerald Green 47 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)28–21
- Q2 7:27GASOGerald Green 1 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)21–21
- Q2 8:25NEBAnthony Grant 4 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:40NEBBrody Belt 21 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:21GASOJalen White 26 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:17NEBCasey Thompson 8 Yd Run (Timmy Bleekrode Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:02GASOJalen White 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEB Elo 1616, GASO Elo 1382 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEB -11.8 (79% to win) — 11.7 points clear of GASO's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #3 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| GASO | NEB | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#95) | CORE overall | -4.0 (#78) |
| +5 / +13 | offense / defense | +1 / +5 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.85 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →