North Carolina vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsSC
- Q4 0:50SCParker White 33 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 7:44SCParker White 22 Yd Field Goal 21–35
- Q3 7:24UNCGarrett Walston 37 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Ty Chandler Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–32
- Q3 9:53SCKevin Harris 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)13–32
- Q2 0:44UNCGrayson Atkins 36 Yd Field Goal 13–25
- Q2 2:27SCJuju McDowell 35 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)10–25
- Q2 5:44UNCGrayson Atkins 40 Yd Field Goal 10–18
- Q2 13:11UNCBritish Brooks 63 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–18
- Q1 0:27SCParker White 30 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q1 7:45SCJaheim Bell 66 Yd pass from Zeb Noland (Kai Kroeger Pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 10:15SCJaheim Bell 69 Yd pass from Dakereon Joyner (Parker White Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassSam Howell 12/20, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBritish Brooks 5 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAntoine Green 4 REC, 73 YDS
- PassDakereon Joyner 9/9, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKevin Harris 31 CAR, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaheim Bell 5 REC, 159 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:45SC +21%
Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 66 yds for a TD, (Kai Kroeger pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q2 2:27SC +20%
Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q3 7:24UNC +19%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q1 10:15SC +17%
Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 69 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
- Q4 7:44SC +17%
Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:53SC +16%
Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. South Carolina?
North Carolina 21, South Carolina 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 333 | Total yards | 543 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 242 |
| 128 | Rushing yards | 301 |
| 14 | First downs | 27 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 12/21 | Comp/Att | 12/15 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 16.1 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-37 | Penalties | 4-20 |
| 20:58 | Possession | 39:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:09 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at UNC 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:50SCParker White 33 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 7:44SCParker White 22 Yd Field Goal 21–35
- Q3 7:24UNCGarrett Walston 37 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Ty Chandler Run for Two-Point Conversion)21–32
- Q3 9:53SCKevin Harris 1 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)13–32
- Q2 0:44UNCGrayson Atkins 36 Yd Field Goal 13–25
- Q2 2:27SCJuju McDowell 35 Yd Run (Parker White Kick)10–25
- Q2 5:44UNCGrayson Atkins 40 Yd Field Goal 10–18
- Q2 13:11UNCBritish Brooks 63 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–18
- Q1 0:27SCParker White 30 Yd Field Goal 0–18
- Q1 7:45SCJaheim Bell 66 Yd pass from Zeb Noland (Kai Kroeger Pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 10:15SCJaheim Bell 69 Yd pass from Dakereon Joyner (Parker White Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1407, UNC Elo 1656 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SC +10 (26% to win) — 2.5 points clear of SC's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #34 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #9 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →North Carolina leads 36–20–4 · 47% have been one-possession games
| UNC | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#70) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#61) |
| +6 / +5 | offense / defense | -0 / -3 |
| 2.89 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.11 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →