East Carolina vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ECUTeam statsGAST
- Q4 0:23GASTDestin Coates 5 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)29–49
- Q4 8:07ECUBlake Proehl 29 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jake Verity PAT failed)29–42
- Q4 10:30ECUTyler Snead 31 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)23–42
- Q4 13:12GASTAntavious Lane 34 Yd Interception Return (Noel Ruiz Kick)16–42
- Q3 0:05ECUJake Verity 48 Yd Field Goal 16–35
- Q2 0:00ECUJake Verity 40 Yd Field Goal 13–35
- Q2 5:26GASTSam Pinckney 13 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:44ECUJake Verity 34 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 12:45GASTTucker Gregg 4 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–28
- Q1 7:19GASTJamari Thrash 22 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–21
- Q1 11:02GASTSam Pinckney 38 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:30GASTDestin Coates 13 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:54ECUWarren Saba 28 Yd Interception Return (Jake Verity Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ECU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.0 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassHolton Ahlers 29/50, 236 YDS, 3 INT
- RushTyler Snead 1 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTyler Snead 11 REC, 105 YDS
- PassCornelious Brown IV 18/28, 238 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushDestin Coates 23 CAR, 113 YDS, 2 TD
- RecSam Pinckney 7 REC, 134 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:30GAST +17%
Destin Coates run for 13 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
- Q1 11:02GAST +15%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 38 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
- Q1 7:19GAST +11%
Cornelious Brown pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 22 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
- Q2 12:45GAST +6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of East Carolina vs. Georgia State?
East Carolina 29, Georgia State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| ECU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 286 | Total yards | 485 |
| 236 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 247 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 29/52 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 11-97 | Penalties | 9-92 |
| 33:05 | Possession | 26:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:07 GAST punt on 4th & 1 at GAST 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:23GASTDestin Coates 5 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)29–49
- Q4 8:07ECUBlake Proehl 29 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jake Verity PAT failed)29–42
- Q4 10:30ECUTyler Snead 31 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)23–42
- Q4 13:12GASTAntavious Lane 34 Yd Interception Return (Noel Ruiz Kick)16–42
- Q3 0:05ECUJake Verity 48 Yd Field Goal 16–35
- Q2 0:00ECUJake Verity 40 Yd Field Goal 13–35
- Q2 5:26GASTSam Pinckney 13 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)10–35
- Q2 7:44ECUJake Verity 34 Yd Field Goal 10–28
- Q2 12:45GASTTucker Gregg 4 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–28
- Q1 7:19GASTJamari Thrash 22 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–21
- Q1 11:02GASTSam Pinckney 38 Yd pass from Cornelious Brown (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–14
- Q1 13:30GASTDestin Coates 13 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:54ECUWarren Saba 28 Yd Interception Return (Jake Verity Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1322, ECU Elo 1235 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -5.9 (66% to win) — 6.9 points clear of GAST's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #94 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| ECU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.8 (#87) | CORE overall | +4.6 (#45) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | +2 / -3 |
| 1.95 | points / drive | 2.28 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 2.21 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →