Troy vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsLSU
- Q4 1:59LSUFoster Moreau 20 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:41LSURussell Gage 34 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)24–14
- Q4 8:14TROYJosh Anderson 7 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)24–7
- Q3 4:00LSUFoster Moreau 7 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)17–7
- Q3 13:06TROYJordan Chunn 1 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)17–0
- Q2 0:00TROYEvan Legassey 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:13TROYBrandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrandon Silvers 16/28, 157 YDS
- RushJordan Chunn 30 CAR, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Douglas 3 REC, 46 YDS
- PassDanny Etling 17/25, 198 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarrel Williams 17 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecDJ Chark 4 REC, 105 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:54TROY +39%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LSU 47
- Q4 1:59LSU +32%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
- Q3 13:06TROY +22%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
- Q3 4:00LSU +21%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
- Q4 8:14TROY +17%
Josh Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
- Q1 13:13TROY +14%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. LSU?
Troy 24, LSU 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 363 | Total yards | 428 |
| 157 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 206 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 0-9 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 21/32 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 34:44 | Possession | 25:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:26 LSU punt on 4th & 9 at TROY 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:59LSUFoster Moreau 20 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)24–21
- Q4 7:41LSURussell Gage 34 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)24–14
- Q4 8:14TROYJosh Anderson 7 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)24–7
- Q3 4:00LSUFoster Moreau 7 Yd pass from Myles Brennan (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)17–7
- Q3 13:06TROYJordan Chunn 1 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)17–0
- Q2 0:00TROYEvan Legassey 37 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 13:13TROYBrandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1764, TROY Elo 1448 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -15 (84% to win) — 5.5 points clear of TROY's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#49 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #8 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #40 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →| TROY | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#38) | CORE overall | +18.7 (#15) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +10 / -8 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →