Air Force vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsCSU
- Q4 3:12AFArion Worthman 7 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)45–28
- Q4 11:53AFRyan Reffitt 56 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)38–28
- Q3 0:51AFLuke Strebel 20 Yd Field Goal 31–28
- Q3 10:50CSUIzzy Matthews 9 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)28–28
- Q2 6:45AFShaquille Vereen 30 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:59AFJacob Stafford 53 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:25CSUAdam Prentice 1 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:45AFTaven Birdow 4 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:19CSUMichael Gallup 55 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:14CSUDalyn Dawkins 76 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:13AFTaven Birdow 3 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassArion Worthman 2/4, 64 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushArion Worthman 25 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyan Reffitt 1 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNick Stevens 17/31, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushDalyn Dawkins 13 CAR, 141 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Gallup 7 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:53AF +42%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 56 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
- Q3 10:50CSU +24%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 6:59AF +21%
Jacob Stafford run for 53 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
- Q3 0:51AF +19%
Luke Strebel 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:45AF +19%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted for a TD Shaquille Vereen return for 30 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
- Q1 9:13AF +19%
Taven Birdow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. Colorado State?
Air Force 45, Colorado State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 435 |
| 64 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 413 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 30 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 6-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 2/4 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 16.0 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 7.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-28 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 41:38 | Possession | 18:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:51 AF field goal on 4th & 3 at CSU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:12AFArion Worthman 7 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)45–28
- Q4 11:53AFRyan Reffitt 56 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)38–28
- Q3 0:51AFLuke Strebel 20 Yd Field Goal 31–28
- Q3 10:50CSUIzzy Matthews 9 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)28–28
- Q2 6:45AFShaquille Vereen 30 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick)28–21
- Q2 6:59AFJacob Stafford 53 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–21
- Q2 9:25CSUAdam Prentice 1 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)14–21
- Q2 12:45AFTaven Birdow 4 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:19CSUMichael Gallup 55 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:14CSUDalyn Dawkins 76 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:13AFTaven Birdow 3 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1613, AF Elo 1498 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -7 (69% to win) — 2.5 points clear of AF's market line of -9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #47 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Air Force leads 40–22–1 · 32% have been one-possession games
| AF | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#103) | CORE overall | -6.4 (#84) |
| +2 / +14 | offense / defense | +6 / +12 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 2.76 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -30 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →