Florida State vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsLOU
- Q4 0:51FSURicky Aguayo 33 Yd Field Goal 20–63
- Q4 5:19FSUAuden Tate 12 Yd pass from J.J. Cosentino (Ricky Aguayo Kick)17–63
- Q4 12:30LOUBrandon Radcliff 6 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–63
- Q4 14:27LOULamar Jackson 47 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–56
- Q3 5:02LOUJeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–49
- Q3 13:49LOUJaire Alexander 69 Yd Punt Return (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–42
- Q2 0:12LOULamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:03LOUJaylen Smith 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:40LOUJeremy Smith 2 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:56FSUAuden Tate 20 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:41FSURicky Aguayo 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:50LOULamar Jackson 14 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:54LOULamar Jackson 2 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.2 vs 3rd & 6.9
- PassDeondre Francois 7/18, 101 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJacques Patrick 7 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecTravis Rudolph 2 REC, 40 YDS
- PassLamar Jackson 13/20, 216 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLamar Jackson 17 CAR, 146 YDS, 4 TD
- RecJames Quick 7 REC, 122 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:40LOU +17%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
- Q2 10:56FSU +17%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
- Q1 12:54LOU +17%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
- Q1 4:50LOU +14%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
- Q2 5:03LOU +11%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
- Q1 1:41FSU +5%
Ricky Aguayo 47 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. Louisville?
Florida State 20, Louisville 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| FSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 284 | Total yards | 530 |
| 113 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 314 |
| 20 | First downs | 24 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 8/24 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 10.8 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-84 | Penalties | 5-56 |
| 31:59 | Possession | 28:01 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:25 LOU punt on 4th & 3 at LOU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.35 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:51FSURicky Aguayo 33 Yd Field Goal 20–63
- Q4 5:19FSUAuden Tate 12 Yd pass from J.J. Cosentino (Ricky Aguayo Kick)17–63
- Q4 12:30LOUBrandon Radcliff 6 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–63
- Q4 14:27LOULamar Jackson 47 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–56
- Q3 5:02LOUJeremy Smith 1 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–49
- Q3 13:49LOUJaire Alexander 69 Yd Punt Return (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–42
- Q2 0:12LOULamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:03LOUJaylen Smith 4 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–28
- Q2 7:40LOUJeremy Smith 2 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)10–21
- Q2 10:56FSUAuden Tate 20 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)10–14
- Q1 1:41FSURicky Aguayo 47 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 4:50LOULamar Jackson 14 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:54LOULamar Jackson 2 Yd Run (Evan O'Hara Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1778, FSU Elo 1801 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -1.5 (55% to win) — 2.5 points clear of LOU's market line of +1. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #90 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #46 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Florida State leads 17–5 · Florida State has won 2 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| FSU | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.1 (#8) | CORE overall | +30.0 (#5) |
| +17 / -9 | offense / defense | +20 / -10 |
| 2.64 | points / drive | 2.98 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.54 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →