Georgia State vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsBALL
- Q4 2:13GASTNick Arbuckle 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)31–19
- Q4 10:41BALLJordan Williams 19 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q3 4:46BALLMorgan Hagee 29 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q2 0:00GASTWil Lutz 50 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 2:51GASTNick Arbuckle 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:44GASTRobert Davis 11 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)14–10
- Q2 10:11BALLDylan Curry 4 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:15GASTKyler Neal 4 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:45BALLMorgan Hagee 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GAST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BALL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassNick Arbuckle 28/38, 412 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKyler Neal 9 CAR, 28 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRobert Davis 9 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRiley Neal 28/48, 218 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarian Green 17 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecJordan Williams-Lambert 7 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 2:51GAST +26%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q4 10:41BALL +25%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jordan Williams for 19 yds for a TD, (Riley Neal intercepted )
- Q2 7:44GAST +22%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q4 6:58GAST +21%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31
- Q4 3:26GAST +20%
Demarcus Kirk run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 31
- Q4 10:34GAST +17%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Penny Hart
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Ball State?
Georgia State 31, Ball State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BALL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 372 |
| 412 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 33 | Rushing yards | 154 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 11-22 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 28/39 | Comp/Att | 28/48 |
| 10.6 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-65 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 30:56 | Possession | 29:04 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 GAST punt on 4th & 1 at GAST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:13GASTNick Arbuckle 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)31–19
- Q4 10:41BALLJordan Williams 19 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–19
- Q3 4:46BALLMorgan Hagee 29 Yd Field Goal 24–13
- Q2 0:00GASTWil Lutz 50 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q2 2:51GASTNick Arbuckle 1 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:44GASTRobert Davis 11 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)14–10
- Q2 10:11BALLDylan Curry 4 Yd pass from Riley Neal (Morgan Hagee Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:15GASTKyler Neal 4 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)7–3
- Q1 4:45BALLMorgan Hagee 35 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1345, GAST Elo 1074 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL -13.2 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #11 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| GAST | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.4 (#88) | CORE overall | -22.8 (#117) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -8 / +15 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.90 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →