Akron vs. Buffalo: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Akron4-5

Buffalo3-6

▸

Final

UB StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
AKR	7	3	7	7	24
BUF	14	13	14	14	55

AKRTeam statsBUF

229Total yards536

161Pass226

68Rush310

15First downs29

6-153rd down9-12

2Turnovers2

23:31Possession35:48

Q4 1:43BUFJordan Johnson 16 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)24–55
Q4 9:41AKRJawon Chisholm 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)24–48
Q4 12:37BUFAnthone Taylor 6 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)17–48
Q3 6:20BUFDevin Campbell 24 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)17–41
Q3 6:42BUFRon Willoughby 42 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)17–34
Q3 9:33AKRCody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)17–27
Q2 0:15BUFJacob Martinez 17 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke PAT failed)10–27
Q2 5:14AKRRobert Stein 33 Yd Field Goal 10–21
Q2 9:30BUFTony Daniel 21 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)7–21
Q1 0:02BUFDevin Campbell 6 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)7–14
Q1 4:59BUFMatt Weiser 33 Yd pass from Jordan Johnson (Patrick Clarke Kick)7–7
Q1 14:37AKRDeAndre Scott 37 Yd Interception Return (Robert Stein Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

BUF −2.2

market AKR −3

Biggest swing

BUF +20%

Q1 0:02

Against the number

BUF covered

line AKR −3

BUF favored ↑50%AKR favored ↓

GridpexBUF 100%

Closing line

AKR −3

Closing total

51.0

Model line

BUF −2.2

Actual result

AKR 24 – 55 BUF

consensus, liveAKR −2.50.5 toward BUF

Akron

PassKyle Pohl 15/29, 128 YDS
RushChiz Chisholm 12 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
RecTyler Williams 4 REC, 37 YDS

Buffalo

PassJoe Licata 16/21, 193 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
RushAnthone Taylor 32 CAR, 178 YDS, 1 TD
RecRon Willoughby 6 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD

24.3sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

147

Points / snap

0.54

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BUF up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

BUF went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14 WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7 WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17 WDuke vs Northwestern38-14 WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7

Q1 0:02BUF +20%
Devin Campbell 6 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)
Q1 4:59BUF +19%
Matt Weiser 33 Yd pass from Jordan Johnson (Patrick Clarke Kick)
Q3 6:42BUF +15%
Ron Willoughby 42 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke Kick)
Q2 9:30BUF +14%
Tony Daniel 21 Yd Run (Patrick Clarke Kick)
Q3 9:33AKR +11%
Cody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)
Q2 0:15BUF +8%
Jacob Martinez 17 Yd pass from Joe Licata (Patrick Clarke PAT failed)

FAQ

What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?

Akron 24, Buffalo 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (BUF) was correct.

AKR

BUF

42%

Success rate

55%

0.06

EPA / pass

0.64

0.02

EPA / rush

0.24

40%

Early-down success

52%

42%

Pass success

65%

41%

Rush success

50%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

31%

Stuffed rush rate

25%

55%

Pass rate

32%

6.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.2

AKR

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

BUF

5.2 yards to go on 3rd down

82 scrimmage snaps

AKR		BUF
229	Total yards	536
161	Passing yards	226
68	Rushing yards	310
15	First downs	29
6-15	3rd down	9-12
2-3	4th down	1-2
19/35	Comp/Att	17/23
4.6	Yards per pass	9.8
2.3	Yards per rush	5.7
2	Turnovers	2
9-98	Penalties	7-75
23:31	Possession	35:48

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

BUF 1237

AKR 1243

Projected spread

BUF -2.2

incl. home edge

Model pick

BUF

57% to win

Market spread

BUF +3

sportsbook line

Model vs market

BUF

5.2 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

57%

BUF (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1237, AKR Elo 1243 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -2.2 (57% to win) — 5.2 points clear of BUF's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2014

nationally ranked

AKR2014 season · national rank shownBUF

373.391st

Total yards / game

438.241st

5.0104th

Yards / play

6.044th

249.650th

Passing yards / game

259.542nd

123.7108th

Rushing yards / game

178.654th

34.1%109th

3rd down %

45.7%29th

371.145th

Yards allowed / game

397.764th

36.4%34th

3rd down % allowed

37.7%43rd

-273rd

Turnover margin

-384th

8.4121st

Penalties / game

5.341st

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Buffalo were +2.5 — a 44% shot

#15 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #84 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.

The 2014 upset archive →

The series25 meetings since 1999

Buffalo leads 13–12 · 36% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2014

AKR		BUF
1.53	points / drive	2.42
1.90	allowed / drive	2.89
28%	three-and-outs	29%

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

AKRTeam statsBUF

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2014

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Akron vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap

AKRTeam statsBUF

How the model called it

What was the final score of Akron vs. Buffalo?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups