Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 3:12FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q3 1:42FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q3 1:42FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q2 0:00FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.11–1
- Q1 3:36USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 3:36USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 5:07USFSOUTH FLORIDA 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–3
- Q1 5:07USFSOUTH FLORIDA 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–3
- Q1 10:29FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 10:29FAUSOUTH FLORIDA fumbled.7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassJaquez Johnson 10/17, 98 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJonathan Wallace 13 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaniel McKinney 6 REC, 42 YDS
- PassSteven Bench 8/23, 128 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcus Shaw 22 CAR, 159 YDS
- RecAndre Davis 3 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFAU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 15:00USF +35%
Bobby Eveld pass complete to Sean Price for 2 yards to the SFla 43, tackled by Adarius Glanton
- Q4 12:48FAU +10%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex Deleon
- Q2 6:54USF +10%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Andre Davis
- Q2 0:00FAU +9%
Jaquez Johnson rush for 7 yards to the FlAtl 47, tackled by Nigel Harris out-of-bounds
- Q2 0:00FAU +9%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Daniel McKinney for 6 yards to the FlAtl 40, tackled by Johnny Ward
- Q3 7:56FAU +9%
Jaquez Johnson rush for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 24, tackled by Todd Chandler
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. South Florida?
Florida Atlantic 28, South Florida 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Total yards | 286 |
| 98 | Passing yards | 130 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 156 |
| 13 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 10/17 | Comp/Att | 9/25 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 9-69 |
| 29:14 | Possession | 30:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:55 FAU punt on 4th & 9 at USF 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:12FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.28–10
- Q3 1:42FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.21–10
- Q3 1:42FAUFLA ATLANTIC rush for a touchdown.20–10
- Q2 0:00FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.11–1
- Q1 3:36USFSOUTH FLORIDA Extra point GOOD.7–10
- Q1 3:36USFSOUTH FLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.7–9
- Q1 5:07USFSOUTH FLORIDA 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–3
- Q1 5:07USFSOUTH FLORIDA 50 yard field goal GOOD.7–3
- Q1 10:29FAUFLA ATLANTIC Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 10:29FAUSOUTH FLORIDA fumbled.7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1418, FAU Elo 1220 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -10.3 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #35 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →