#7Tyler Ervin

RB·San José State·20151.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tyler Ervin is a Featured Back for San José State. Tyler's 2015 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 339 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Ervin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1601 Rush yards13 Rush TD294 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

45 Receptions334 Rec yards2 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Returns

25 Kick returns597 KR yards0 KR TD8 Punt returns105 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Explosiveness48
Consistency34
Receiving62

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency34th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.36 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Air Force (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Hampshire	W43-13	—	20	127	6.3	3	3	34	0	0.30
2	@Air Force	L16-37	4.7	12	121	10.1	1	3	28	1	0.64
3	@Oregon State	L21-35	-10.1	21	93	4.4	2	6	30	0	0.11
4	vsFresno State	W49-23	-12.6	42	300	7.1	3	4	45	0	0.60
5	@Auburn	L21-35	14.6	27	160	5.9	1	1	11	0	0.28
6	@UNLV	W33-27	-16.2	18	73	4.1	1	8	74	1	0.20
7	vsSan Diego State	L7-30	8.0	17	22	1.3	0	3	-1	0	-0.38
8	vsNew Mexico	W31-21	-8.7	36	263	7.3	1	2	11	0	0.13
10	vsBYU	L16-17	8.7	23	80	3.5	0	4	13	0	-0.16
11	@Nevada	L34-37	-7.1	17	64	3.8	0	—	—	—	-0.19
12	@Hawai'i	W42-23	-16.3	20	114	5.7	1	6	62	0	0.35
13	vsBoise State	L23-40	11.8	11	52	4.7	0	4	30	0	-0.13
1	vsGeorgia State	W27-16	-6.7	30	132	4.4	0	1	-3	0	-0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.3%

Passing plays

12.8%

Rushing plays

59.2%

Standard downs

44.5%

Passing downs

20.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.