#3Skyler Howard

QB·West Virginia·2016 20156.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Skyler Howard is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for West Virginia. Skyler's 2016 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 521 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Skyler Howard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

247/404 Comp/Att3328 Pass yards26 Pass TD10 INT61.1% Comp %

Rushing

463 Rush yards10 Rush TD142 Carries3.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat90
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Iowa State (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMissouri	W26-11	-1.0	23/35	253	0	1	67.1	35	0	0.20
2	vsYoungstown State	W38-21	—	20/33	389	5	1	94.6	50	0	0.69
4	vsBYU	W35-32	8.0	31/40	332	1	1	75.7	27	1	0.26
5	vsKansas State	W17-16	8.2	24/41	298	1	1	53.3	-6	0	0.20
7	@Texas Tech	W48-17	3.7	21/31	318	1	0	88.4	89	2	0.57
8	vsTCU	W34-10	11.0	16/23	231	4	0	79.9	5	0	0.40
9	@Oklahoma State	L20-37	16.4	24/39	212	1	2	38.0	-17	1	0.18
10	vsKansas	W48-21	-15.9	16/27	260	3	0	95.8	64	2	0.49
11	@Texas	W24-20	10.6	21/35	269	1	3	53.6	27	0	0.21
12	vsOklahoma	L28-56	26.1	12/27	191	2	1	33.0	52	2	0.10
13	@Iowa State	W49-19	0.7	12/21	330	5	0	95.6	48	0	0.85
14	vsBaylor	W24-21	11.3	10/26	111	2	0	28.5	26	1	0.05
1	vsMiami	L14-31	18.6	17/26	134	0	0	28.9	63	1	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.6%

Passing plays

98.6%

Rushing plays

21.4%

Standard downs

49.9%

Passing downs

65.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	West Virginia	4.2	0.336	—	200.8
2016	West Virginia	6.4	0.407	+0.07	216.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.