What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shamar Porter's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Air yards
Where the ball goes, and how much of the gain is the throw rather than the run after it.
The ball travels -1.5 yards in the air on an average target — 10.4 yards shorter than the median. Another 19.2 comes after the catch.
Where he is targeted
targets · completion rate · yardsDepth and direction come from CFBD’s passing detail, which is backfilled after the games: this covers weeks 1–2 only. Spikes, throwaways and intentional grounding are excluded before any average.
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume11
- Explosiveness39
- Consistency61
- Pass-Down49
Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 1.17 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 2.33 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -9).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.33
- Passing downs
- 0.33
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.33 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).