#4Semaj Morgan

WR·Michigan·2025

Semaj Morgan is a Versatile WR for Michigan. Semaj's 2025 season produced 4.5 total EPA across 42 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Semaj Morgan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

20 Receptions223 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.2 Yards/rec

Returns

13 Punt returns30 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency50
Volume17
Explosiveness28
Consistency0
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.06 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.64 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Central Michigan (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2025	70	0.220	0.8	15.4
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Amare Jones	Tulane	2019	58	0.230	0.8	13.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico	W34-17	0.9	4	33	8.3	0	11	0.74
2	@Oklahoma	L13-24	18.3	1	19	19.0	0	19	-0.20
3	vsCentral Michigan	W63-3	-8.8	4	69	17.3	1	32	1.64
4	@Nebraska	W30-27	6.2	2	22	11.0	0	16	0.23
6	vsWisconsin	W24-10	-4.4	5	44	8.8	0	19	-0.12
7	@USC	L13-31	16.9	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.08
8	vsWashington	W24-7	18.4	2	20	10.0	0	13	-0.81
9	@Michigan State	W31-20	-3.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.31
10	vsPurdue	W21-16	-6.1	—	—	—	—	—	-0.61
12	vsNorthwestern	W24-22	5.8	—	—	—	—	—	-0.66
20	vsTexas	L27-41	16.2	1	9	9.0	0	9	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.8%

Passing plays

12.0%

Rushing plays

1.2%

Standard downs

5.7%

Passing downs

6.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.12 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).