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Roman Mothershed
Roman Mothershed

#82Roman Mothershed

WR·Troy·2025

Roman Mothershed is a Versatile WR for Troy. Roman's 2025 season produced 15.5 total EPA across 33 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Roman Mothershed's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
25 Receptions259 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume15
  • Explosiveness22
  • Consistency49
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency49th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.79 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.32 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Nicholls.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Dane KinamonAir Force0.4100.716.0
Savion WilliamsTCU0.4501.125.2
Keytaon ThompsonVirginia0.3700.615.2
Micah DavisAir Force0.3700.616.3
DeAndre HughesAir Force0.4701.328.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.320−1.32Wk 1 vs Nicholls: +1.32 EPA/play1Wk 3 vs Memphis: +0.71 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Buffalo: +0.46 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs South Alabama: +0.65 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Texas State: +0.54 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs UL Monroe: -0.96 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Louisiana: +1.25 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Arkansas State: -0.40 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Old Dominion: +0.10 EPA/play12
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsNichollsW38-20—23216.01271.32
3vsMemphisL7-287.68587.30250.71
4@BuffaloW21-17-7.535217.30290.46
6vsSouth AlabamaW31-24-12.722613.00160.65
7@Texas StateW48-412.333311.00160.54
8@UL MonroeW37-14-21.6155.005-0.96
9vsLouisianaW35-23-10.111414.00141.25
10vsArkansas StateL10-23-8.8221.005-0.40
12@Old DominionL0-335.933712.30230.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
5.3%
Passing plays
11.0%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
5.0%
Passing downs
6.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.31
Passing downs
0.71
Pass / Rush EPA
0.47 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.