#13P.J. Wells

WR·Jacksonville State·2024

P.J. Wells is a Slot Specialist WR for Jacksonville State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So P.J. Wells's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

12 Receptions72 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency88
Volume10
Explosiveness0
Consistency40
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency40th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (88th percentile).
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.55 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Liberty (SP+ 0).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Long	EPA/play
2	@Louisville	L14-49	13.6	2	6	3.0	4	-0.20
3	@Eastern Michigan	L34-37	-13.3	5	31	6.2	12	0.35
6	@Kennesaw State	W63-24	-25.1	1	4	4.0	4	-0.16
7	vsNew Mexico State	W54-13	-19.0	1	6	6.0	6	0.10
10	@Liberty	W31-21	0.2	2	24	12.0	15	0.99
11	@Louisiana Tech	W44-37	-11.6	1	1	1.0	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

3.4%

Passing plays

9.4%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

2.5%

Passing downs

5.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.08
Passing downs: 0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).