#7Nick Stevens

QB·Colorado State·20179.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nick Stevens is a Dual-Threat QB for Colorado State. Nick's 2017 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 495 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Stevens's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

284/459 Comp/Att3799 Pass yards29 Pass TD10 INT61.9% Comp %

Rushing

123 Rush yards4 Rush TD54 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat83
Consistency84
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.27 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsColorado	L3-17	2.0	24/47	309	0	2	25.7	-13	0	0.63
1	vsOregon State	W58-27	-12.6	26/39	334	3	1	77.3	6	0	0.63
2	vsAbilene Christian	W38-10	—	25/40	337	3	1	84.0	41	0	0.40
3	@Alabama	L23-41	33.5	21/38	247	2	2	73.2	26	1	0.45
5	@Hawai'i	W51-21	-19.7	18/22	351	4	0	99.1	13	0	1.27
6	@Utah State	W27-14	-3.3	22/31	293	2	0	92.8	2	0	0.63
7	vsNevada	W44-42	-16.4	26/37	384	4	0	91.1	2	0	0.64
8	@New Mexico	W27-24	-12.4	17/33	231	2	0	63.4	-7	0	0.43
9	vsAir Force	L28-45	-11.0	17/31	269	2	3	57.3	13	0	0.08
10	@Wyoming	L13-16	-2.5	8/14	110	0	0	62.1	17	0	0.42
11	vsBoise State	L52-59	9.1	29/43	309	2	1	—	11	1	0.48
12	vsSan José State	W42-14	-20.0	26/32	305	3	0	91.7	28	0	0.41
1	vsMarshall	L28-31	-4.5	25/52	320	2	0	55.8	-16	2	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.7%

Passing plays

100.0%

Rushing plays

8.5%

Standard downs

42.8%

Passing downs

70.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.70
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.