#7Nick Fitzgerald

QB·Mississippi State·2018 20167.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Nick Fitzgerald is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Mississippi State. Nick's 2016 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 520 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Fitzgerald's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

196/361 Comp/Att2423 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT54.3% Comp %

Rushing

1375 Rush yards16 Rush TD195 Carries7.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency57
Clutch59

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.37 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.14 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 12).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Alabama	L20-21	-9.4	0/3	0	0	0	1.8	11	0	-0.30
2	vsSouth Carolina	W27-14	-4.0	19/29	178	2	1	91.4	195	0	0.30
3	@LSU	L20-23	25.3	12/24	120	0	0	22.3	13	0	-0.14
4	@Massachusetts	W47-35	-15.3	26/39	305	3	0	87.4	110	0	0.47
6	vsAuburn	L14-38	15.3	17/34	181	2	1	16.6	61	0	0.20
7	@BYU	L21-28	8.0	17/36	214	1	2	63.3	41	2	0.05
8	@Kentucky	L38-40	-2.6	13/21	81	1	1	62.9	107	2	0.16
9	vsSamford	W56-41	—	20/35	417	5	2	87.1	119	2	0.69
10	vsTexas A&M	W35-28	12.0	18/31	209	2	2	83.1	182	2	0.30
11	@Alabama	L3-51	31.7	10/33	145	0	1	9.3	15	0	-0.23
12	vsArkansas	L42-58	7.9	23/33	328	2	0	92.3	131	4	0.68
13	@Ole Miss	W55-20	12.4	8/17	109	3	0	99.3	258	2	1.14
1	vsMiami (OH)	W17-16	-6.1	13/26	136	0	0	69.2	132	2	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.2%

Passing plays

88.0%

Rushing plays

34.9%

Standard downs

52.1%

Passing downs

72.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / 0.63

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Mississippi State	7.4	0.430	—	230.9
2018	Mississippi State	4.5	0.377	-0.05	199.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.