#2Michael Jackson III

WR·Purdue·2025

Michael Jackson III is a Versatile WR for Purdue. Michael's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 75 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Jackson III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

63 Receptions570 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Returns

22 Kick returns520 KR yards0 KR TD8 Punt returns26 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume30
Explosiveness14
Consistency50
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.04 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Notre Dame (SP+ 24).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsBall State	W31-0	-23.0	6	72	12.0	1	18	0.84
2	vsSouthern Illinois	W34-17	—	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.25
3	vsUSC	L17-33	16.9	7	70	10.0	0	31	0.42
4	@Notre Dame	L30-56	24.4	4	62	15.5	0	20	1.04
6	vsIllinois	L27-43	12.9	14	94	6.7	0	13	0.43
7	@Minnesota	L20-27	1.5	4	49	12.3	0	15	-0.05
8	@Northwestern	L0-19	5.8	5	36	7.2	0	13	-0.02
9	vsRutgers	L24-27	1.0	3	8	2.7	0	7	-0.66
10	@Michigan	L16-21	12.4	6	58	9.7	0	19	0.89
11	vsOhio State	L10-34	30.1	3	15	5.0	0	9	0.45
12	@Washington	L13-49	18.4	4	33	8.3	0	26	0.01
14	vsIndiana	L3-56	32.4	6	66	11.0	0	21	0.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.4%

Passing plays

19.3%

Rushing plays

0.6%

Standard downs

9.2%

Passing downs

12.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.65
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / -0.56

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).