#12Marquise Williams

QB·North Carolina·2015 20147.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Marquise Williams is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Marquise's 2014 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 582 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marquise Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

270/428 Comp/Att3068 Pass yards21 Pass TD9 INT63.1% Comp %

Rushing

788 Rush yards13 Rush TD193 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat94
Consistency69
Clutch84

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs San Diego State (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsLiberty	W56-29	—	19/29	169	2	2	77.7	52	2	0.27
2	vsSan Diego State	W31-27	1.0	20/29	255	2	0	79.3	63	0	0.53
4	@East Carolina	L41-70	8.5	14/25	127	0	1	16.7	37	0	-0.13
5	@Clemson	L35-50	18.1	24/38	345	4	1	40.3	-3	0	0.42
6	vsVirginia Tech	L17-34	7.8	17/33	187	1	0	35.6	94	0	-0.02
7	@Notre Dame	L43-50	10.8	24/41	303	2	1	73.7	132	1	0.47
8	vsGeorgia Tech	W48-43	11.2	38/47	390	4	1	88.4	73	1	0.51
9	@Virginia	W28-27	4.0	15/28	259	2	1	50.0	49	1	0.13
10	@Miami	L20-47	13.9	22/32	186	0	1	10.6	9	2	-0.03
12	vsPittsburgh	W40-35	14.1	23/40	276	1	0	85.2	122	3	0.44
13	@Duke	W45-20	7.0	18/27	276	2	0	74.2	98	2	0.46
14	vsNC State	L7-35	8.1	11/22	97	0	1	19.4	11	0	-0.11
1	vsRutgers	L21-40	-1.5	25/37	198	1	0	55.3	51	1	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

61.1%

Passing plays

84.4%

Rushing plays

35.9%

Standard downs

55.4%

Passing downs

74.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	North Carolina	7.5	0.389	—	256.6
2015	North Carolina	8.3	0.476	+0.09	240.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.