#5Manny Wilkins

QB·Arizona State·2018 20177.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Manny Wilkins is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Arizona State. Manny's 2018 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 496 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Manny Wilkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

246/391 Comp/Att3023 Pass yards20 Pass TD6 INT62.9% Comp %

Rushing

452 Rush yards8 Rush TD112 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat86
Consistency82
Clutch40

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Utah (SP+ 17).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUTSA	W49-7	-22.1	16/24	237	4	0	28	0	0.53
2	vsMichigan State	W16-13	11.5	30/48	380	1	1	25	0	0.35
3	@San Diego State	L21-28	6.0	31/45	341	2	0	16	1	0.46
4	@Washington	L20-27	19.9	17/27	104	0	0	13	1	0.15
5	vsOregon State	W52-24	-16.0	14/25	162	3	0	61	0	0.30
6	@Colorado	L21-28	-0.7	12/18	222	1	0	14	0	0.47
8	vsStanford	L13-20	13.0	25/42	351	0	1	41	1	0.26
9	@USC	W38-35	9.7	14/22	166	1	0	89	1	0.48
10	vsUtah	W38-20	16.8	19/24	285	3	1	24	0	0.67
11	vsUCLA	W31-28	-0.4	16/22	199	1	1	60	2	0.33
12	@Oregon	L29-31	7.3	15/32	182	2	0	-12	1	0.14
13	@Arizona	W41-40	3.6	18/31	265	1	0	57	1	0.43
1	vsFresno State	L20-31	17.4	19/31	129	1	2	36	0	-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.9%

Passing plays

99.0%

Rushing plays

20.3%

Standard downs

47.3%

Passing downs

72.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Arizona State	5.4	0.373	—	212.8
2018	Arizona State	7.7	0.453	+0.08	241.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.