#5Manny Wilkins

QB·Arizona State·2018 20175.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Manny Wilkins is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Arizona State. Manny's 2017 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 535 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Manny Wilkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

260/410 Comp/Att3270 Pass yards20 Pass TD8 INT63.4% Comp %

Rushing

282 Rush yards7 Rush TD138 Carries2.0 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts52 Punt yards26.0 Yards/punt36 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Oregon State (SP+ -13).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico State	W37-31	-9.4	22/27	300	2	0	76.2	6	0	0.29
2	vsSan Diego State	L20-30	4.5	20/33	298	2	0	33.4	-15	0	0.21
3	@Texas Tech	L45-52	4.8	27/41	326	3	0	84.1	25	0	0.47
4	vsOregon	W37-35	9.1	24/39	347	1	0	69.3	35	2	0.47
5	@Stanford	L24-34	15.8	15/24	181	0	2	18.6	-11	0	0.04
7	vsWashington	W13-7	22.1	29/41	245	0	0	64.8	2	0	0.18
8	@Utah	W30-10	12.0	19/29	140	0	1	57.8	18	1	0.08
9	vsUSC	L17-48	17.9	17/29	259	1	0	26.5	-9	1	0.11
10	vsColorado	W41-30	2.0	18/34	202	2	0	64.2	95	1	0.29
11	@UCLA	L37-44	4.9	21/37	290	1	1	52.1	35	1	0.11
12	@Oregon State	W40-24	-12.6	12/19	167	2	0	89.9	60	0	0.52
13	vsArizona	W42-30	3.7	11/17	163	3	1	72.5	28	0	0.47
1	vsNC State	L31-52	12.9	25/40	352	3	3	54.2	13	1	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.3%

Passing plays

97.8%

Rushing plays

19.1%

Standard downs

48.0%

Passing downs

68.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Arizona State	5.4	0.373	—	212.8
2018	Arizona State	7.7	0.453	+0.08	241.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.