#4Malik Dunner

WR·Ball State·2018 20170.0 pts line value1st Round

Malik Dunner is a 2-year Versatile WR for Ball State. Malik's 2018 season ranks in the 17th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 85 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Dunner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

295 Rush yards4 Rush TD65 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions195 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Returns

25 Kick returns476 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs WR peers

Efficiency17
Volume28
Explosiveness15
Consistency0
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)17th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.34 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Central Connecticut.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2025	70	0.220	0.8	15.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsCentral Connecticut	W42-6	—	4	49	12.3	0	36	0.79
2	@Notre Dame	L16-24	20.7	1	-3	-3.0	0	0	-0.36
3	@Indiana	L10-38	1.6	1	30	30.0	0	30	0.75
4	vsWestern Kentucky	L20-28	-16.1	—	—	—	—	—	-0.14
5	vsKent State	W52-24	-20.4	2	12	6.0	1	9	0.14
6	vsNorthern Illinois	L16-24	-2.7	1	9	9.0	0	9	-0.10
7	@Central Michigan	W24-23	-20.0	5	55	11.0	0	26	0.39
8	vsEastern Michigan	L20-42	-2.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.69
9	@Ohio	L14-52	4.0	1	-8	-8.0	0	0	-0.73
10	@Toledo	L13-45	2.0	1	20	20.0	0	13	0.17
12	vsWestern Michigan	W42-41	-10.7	1	-3	-3.0	0	0	-0.37
13	@Miami (OH)	L21-42	-0.7	4	34	8.5	0	16	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.7%

Passing plays

5.3%

Rushing plays

15.2%

Standard downs

11.9%

Passing downs

5.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.00

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ball State	0.4	0.290	—	22.0
2018	Ball State	0.0	0.150	-0.14	9.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.