#3Malik Cunningham

QB·Louisville·2021 2020 20197.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Malik Cunningham is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Louisville. Malik's 2020 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 433 plays — a average rate for the QB. Malik's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Cunningham's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

195/303 Comp/Att2617 Pass yards20 Pass TD12 INT64.4% Comp %

Rushing

608 Rush yards7 Rush TD131 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Florida State (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsWestern Kentucky	W35-21	-3.2	19/34	343	3	1	24	1	0.46
3	vsMiami	L34-47	12.8	26/36	307	3	1	7	0	0.29
4	@Pittsburgh	L20-23	6.0	9/21	107	1	3	3	0	-0.06
6	@Georgia Tech	L27-46	-1.0	19/33	229	2	0	50	2	0.43
7	@Notre Dame	L7-12	21.0	16/18	134	1	0	48	0	0.57
8	vsFlorida State	W48-16	-4.9	16/24	278	2	0	40	0	0.70
9	vsVirginia Tech	L35-42	13.7	23/35	350	3	3	47	0	0.53
11	@Virginia	L17-31	0.9	13/21	161	0	1	197	2	0.00
12	vsSyracuse	W30-0	-9.8	19/28	219	1	2	21	1	0.19
13	@Boston College	L27-34	0.9	19/31	294	2	1	133	0	0.51
15	vsWake Forest	W45-21	0.8	16/22	195	2	0	38	1	0.52

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.0%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

27.5%

Standard downs

53.7%

Passing downs

68.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.67
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.53

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 36 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Louisville	9.1	0.639	—	207.2
2020	Louisville	7.9	0.472	-0.17	217.8
2021	Louisville	14.7	0.681	+0.21	341.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.