#1Jermaine Brown Jr.

RB·UAB·2023

Jermaine Brown Jr. is a Pass-Catching Back for UAB. Jermaine's 2023 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 193 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jermaine Brown Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

803 Rush yards12 Rush TD158 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

41 Receptions416 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.1 Yards/rec

Returns

15 Kick returns331 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume67
Explosiveness42
Consistency58
Receiving78

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs North Carolina A&T.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Carolina A&T	W35-6	—	6	47	7.8	2	4	33	0	1.07
2	@Georgia Southern	L35-49	-5.2	13	34	2.6	1	4	20	0	-0.09
3	vsLouisiana	L21-41	0.4	3	6	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.41
4	@Georgia	L21-49	31.2	5	19	3.8	0	3	28	0	0.68
5	@Tulane	L23-35	2.8	13	48	3.7	0	6	44	0	0.19
6	vsSouth Florida	W56-35	-6.6	18	116	6.4	4	2	20	0	0.91
7	@UTSA	L20-41	5.4	12	57	4.8	1	6	116	0	0.52
8	vsMemphis	L21-45	3.5	13	83	6.4	1	1	10	0	-0.09
10	vsFlorida Atlantic	W45-42	-9.4	22	69	3.1	0	4	72	1	0.16
11	@Navy	L6-31	-13.7	15	55	3.7	0	5	6	0	-0.20
12	vsTemple	W34-24	-21.0	20	153	7.7	1	5	20	0	0.33
13	@North Texas	L42-45	-6.7	18	116	6.4	2	1	47	0	0.73

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.3%

Passing plays

10.0%

Rushing plays

38.9%

Standard downs

27.4%

Passing downs

12.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.51 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).